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Country Report

Tobacco in Serbia

Jun 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Serbia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Serbia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Serbia for free:

The Tobacco in Serbia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Serbia?
  • What are the major brands in Serbia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Serbia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Serbia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Serbia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Serbia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Serbia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Increase of illicit trade in neighbouring countries is boosting Serbian market

Tobacco sales in general and especially cigarettes sales increased in 2010 in spite of reverse expectations. However, this was not the result of higher smoking prevalence in the Serbian population but of greater quantities of smuggling cigarettes from Serbia to Bulgaria and Romania. As much as 100 million packs were bought but not consumed in Serbia during 2010. Reports from these countries, which joined the EU in 2007 and hence have much more expensive cigarettes than Serbia, are speaking about an increase in illicit trade. Furthermore, Serbian police inform of arrests and seizures in connection with smuggling cigarettes from Serbia, but when unrecorded and unreported cases are taken into account, the final figure is probably a lot higher than it may appear from these police reports in the press. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely this trend will continue in the same intensity over the first two or three years of the forecast period.

New law on smoking ban threatens tobacco sales in Serbia

The Serbian Parliament passed a new law on public smoking in November 2010. It forbids smoking in every indoor working or public space as well as outdoor space that is a functional part of a facility in which activity connected with health care, education and child care is conducted. This law prescribes very high fines for employers and restaurant owners who do not post smoking ban notifications. Outlets (bars, cafés, restaurants, night clubs etc.) smaller than 80 sq m can choose whether to ban smoking or not, and outlets larger than this margin have to have divided areas for smokers and nonsmokers. This law is not going to affect the tobacco industry that much because of this partial smoking ban in cafés but much more because of the smoking ban at work (public and educational institutions, post offices, boutiques etc.). This law, combined with the government’s campaigns on raising awareness of smoking’s health risks, will have a negative effect on tobacco sales in Serbia.

No more high tar cigarettes

Being in the process of joining the EU, Serbia has to align its tobacco control legislation with minimum EU standards. As a result, high tar cigarettes were banned on 1 January 2009. And whilst it was still possible for consumers to purchase high tar cigarettes in 2009, in 2010 it was not the case. So far, experience from other countries which have been through this process has been confirmed, that is, consumers of high tar cigarettes almost inevitably switch to mid tar cigarettes, with only a few of them moving from high tar cigarettes towards low tar cigarettes or ultra low tar cigarettes.

10-pack cigarettes are banned

At the end of 2009 authorities started to implement the Law on Tobacco’s paragraph 72, which bans producing and selling packs of cigarettes that contain less than 20 cigarettes. This is a part of the government’s strategy to reduce smoking prevalence because 10-packs are more affordable than those ones that contain 20 cigarettes. Even though cigarettes are still fairly cheap in Serbia, it is expected this will change over the forecast period because Serbia is increasing tobacco-related taxes continuously to meet EU standards.

RYO tobacco is on the rise

Serbia is following the well-known trend towards consumers shifting towards cheaper brands of cigarettes and RYO tobacco. Cigarette prices are still very low in Serbia compared to all neighbouring countries and especially compared to highly-developed Western European countries, but prices increased significantly during 2009-2010 and that is the reason why more and more people are switching to RYO tobacco. A further reason for this shift can be found in the notion that RYO tobacco has no various additives which it is known cigarettes do contain.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Serbia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Increase of illicit trade in neighbouring countries is boosting Serbian market

New law on smoking ban threatens tobacco sales in Serbia

No more high tar cigarettes

10-pack cigarettes are banned

RYO tobacco is on the rise

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2006-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Summary 2 Taxation and Duty Levies

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2010

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 5 Trade Statistics – Tobacco Leaf 2006-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 3 Research Sources

Tobacco in Serbia - Company Profiles

Duvanska Industrija Niš ad in Tobacco (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Duvanska Industrija Niš ad: Competitive Position 2010

Duvanska Industrija Vranje ad in Tobacco (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Duvanska Industrija Vranje ad: Competitive Position 2010

Monus doo in Tobacco (Serbia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Monus doo: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarette sales were growing until 2006 when they started to decline. They declined steadily during the next four years. However, in 2010 in spite of reverse expectations and trends, cigarette sales increased 6%, reaching 25.2 billion sticks, which is very close to the 2006 peak of 25.8 billion sticks. However, this is not the result of higher smoking prevalence in Serbia but of increased smuggling of cigarettes to Bulgaria and Romania. There are numerous reports from these countries that speak about increase in illicit trade. For example, the Bulgarian customs director admitted that 30% of Bulgarian sales are illicit trade whilst legal sales dropped by an enormous 35% in 2010 in this country.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • It is not completely true to say that the Serbian tobacco industry is a monopoly, because there are three major international companies present and also some other manufacturers that are recording sales increases. But it is true that there is fierce competition on the market. Three major international companies – Philip Morris International, Japan Tobacco International and British American Tobacco – all have chosen Serbia as their regional headquarters.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Two things can be pointed out as the most important factors which will influence cigarettes over the forecast period. One of them is the new law on smoking ban which came into force in November 2010, and the second one is the trend towards taxes increasing, especially with the revision of the tax excise law in December 2010 and the government’s decision to increase tax excise for cigarettes more than it was planned and agreed with the major industry players that still have strong lobbies. Both of these Serbian government measures will have the same effect in the forecast period and that is price increase. Along with some other factors (health warnings, risk awareness etc.) that will cause smoking prevalence to continue to fall, this move will lead to decline in Serbia’s cigarettes sales.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 14 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filtered/unfiltered

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • There is no tradition of cigar smoking amongst Serbian consumers and they are not really familiar with cigar smoking-related culture and customs. A manager in one of the largest distributing company noted that Serbian consumers remained poorly educated about lifestyle and other issues that are connected with cigar consuming. One of the main reasons for that is the promotion ban that is affecting all cigars and cigarillos. Typical cigar smokers are wealthy middle-aged men and younger people resident in the country’s largest cities. Another important consumer group for cigars is those who purchase cigars as presents.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • None of the cigar manufacturers is present in Serbia and hence this section is focused on distributors. Key distributing players are Julieta doo, Veletabak doo, Megatabak doo and Elmag International doo.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars in Serbia is still poorly developed, but this is changing gradually. It is crucial that cigars are strongly correlated with cigarettes because of the extremely low cigarettes unit prices in Serbia. However, this is set to change over the decade after 2010, but it will not happen over the forecast period and cigars is not expected to have more than 1% CAGR over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 51 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 55 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Serbia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco was available in Serbia during 2010, but only in several specialised stores in the capital, Belgrade. There is no awareness about these products amongst Serbian consumers and main customers are tourists from Western European countries, especially Scandinavian countries. It is not expected that smokeless tobacco will start developing in Serbia over the forecast period, mostly because the level of consumers’ awareness about smokeless tobacco will not reach even 1% of the total population until 2015.

Smoking Tobacco in Serbia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe smoking in Serbia is not widely spread and is not very popular. Pipe tobacco is mostly smoked by certain groups of older consumers and it often represents a matter of fashion for these people. As far as water-pipe tobacco is considered, it can be said that nargila (or hookah) smoking is becoming more popular every year in Serbia. On the other hand, RYO tobacco is becoming more and more popular, especially amongst young people, because it is fairly cheaper than cigarettes.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In 2010, as much as 53% of all RYO tobacco sold in Serbia belonged to Gryson NV’s Domingo brand, and the leader in pipe tobacco was Mac Baren Tobacco Co A/S with a value share of 86%. The dominance of a single major player in each category is possibly due to the underdevelopment of smoking tobacco. As smoking tobacco develops and matures, more major players can be expected to enter smoking tobacco, leading to a fall in the share of the leading players in both pipe tobacco and RYO tobacco.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • RYO tobacco will rise steadily over the forecast period, but it is not expected to skyrocket. Adding the rise in popularity of pipe tobacco, it can be concluded that smoking tobacco will increase notably in Serbia by 2015.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 59 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 60 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 64 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 65 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 67 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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