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Country Report

Tobacco in South Africa

Oct 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growth of tobacco remains stable in 2011

Cigarettes continued to decline in volume in 2011, due to a significant increase in the cost of living which limited consumer spending. Consumers are subsequently trading down to cheaper tobacco products.

Illicit tobacco sales on the rise as the cost of living increases

The sale of illicit cigarettes rose sharply in 2011, resulting in a reduction in legitimate cigarette sales volumes in South Africa. This was prompted by the increase in the cost of living and smokers subsequently trying to minimise their spending, including on cigarettes. They are therefore resorting to buying illegitimate cigarettes which are 50% cheaper than legitimate cigarettes. This is having a detrimental affect on sales of legitimate cigarettes.

British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd continues to dominate South African tobacco

British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd dominates South African cigarettes volume sales. Since cigarettes accounts for the majority of tobacco products, the company therefore dominates South African tobacco. Philip Morris South Africa (Pty) Ltd and JT International South Africa (Pty) Ltd are other significant players, with their respective leading brands Marlboro and Camel. Philip Morris's acquisition of Swedish Match South Africa (Proprietary) Limited in September 2009 is expected to contribute to growth in volume share.

Supermarkets/hypermarkets remains the main selling channel for tobacco products

South Africans are continuing to use supermarkets/hypermarkets as their major point of purchase for all tobacco products. This is due to cigarettes being cheaper at this channel compared to forecourt retailers and independent small grocers. The sale of cigarettes through vending machines is also slowly increasing as retailers seek alternative ways to reduce their operational costs.

Tobacco will continue to shrink over the forecast period

Tobacco in South Africa is anticipated to slow down sharply over the forecast period. The government of South Africa is continuously reviewing the tobacco laws and this is a cause for concern by tobacco players who fear a stricter operating environment. One example of this is the publishing of draft regulations on the display of tobacco products in the country. The proposed law is set to restrict the way tobacco products are displayed at point of sale.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in South Africa with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in South Africa, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in South Africa for free:

The Tobacco in South Africa market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in South Africa?
  • What are the major brands in South Africa?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in South Africa?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in South Africa?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in South Africa?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in South Africa in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in South Africa?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in South Africa - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Growth of tobacco remains stable in 2011

Illicit tobacco sales on the rise as the cost of living increases

British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd continues to dominate South African tobacco

Supermarkets/hypermarkets remains the main selling channel for tobacco products

Tobacco will continue to shrink over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

  • Summary 2 Warnings on Tobacco Products in South Africa
  • Summary 3 Legally-prescribed Warnings to be Used on Packaging

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Smoking areas

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown : Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 4 Research Sources

Tobacco in South Africa - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd in Tobacco (South Africa)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 British American Tobacco (South Africa) Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

JT International South Africa (Pty) Ltd in Tobacco (South Africa)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 10 JT International South Africa (Pty) Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris South Africa (Pty) Ltd in Tobacco (South Africa)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Philip Morris South Africa (Pty) Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Wesleys SA (Pty) Ltd in Tobacco (South Africa)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Cigarettes in South Africa - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Illicit tobacco sales in South Africa grew by 39% in volume in 2010 to reach six billion sticks. This had a serious impact on legal duty paid cigarettes sales in South Africa. Illicit cigarettes were sold at a price that was half of what consumers would normally pay for a duty paid packet of cigarettes and hence the low income groups took advantage of this by purchasing illicit cigarettes.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • BAT dominated cigarettes sales with 84% volume share in 2010. The company has 26 brands across all tar levels and price points. It has the leading brands Peter Stuyvesant, Kent and Dunhill in its brand portfolio. Other players include Philip Morris which had only 5% volume share with its Marlboro and Chesterfield brands, and JT International which also had 5% volume share with the brands Camel and Winston. Mastermind Tobacco SA (Pty) Ltd is the most prominent domestic player, although it had only 1% volume share in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Cigarettes - New Product Launches 2010

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarette volume sales are forecast to continue to decline over the forecast period as illicit trade volumes increasingly threaten legitimate sales. However, manufacturers are also optimistic that their partnership with the government to combat illicit trade may yield results. The government set up operations at border posts where random searches are made on individuals as well as company vehicles to minimise the import of illegal cigarettes.

BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 17 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/unfiltered

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslim vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in South Africa - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Standard machine-made cigars were traditionally perceived as belonging to the higher income earning group in South Africa over the review period. However, this perception is changing as it became clear that only handmade cigars are smoked by people with a higher status in society as they are very expensive compared to the standard machine-made cigars. The popularity of cigars is slowly diminishing due to the increasing costs of living which force smokers to watch their spending and choose cheaper alternatives.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Brasant Enterprises continues to lead with a volume share of 55%. This was due to the efficient distribution network of Clippa Sales, which distributes 90% of cigars in South Africa. Leading brands include Brasant Enterprises’s Ritmeester brand with a 44% volume share in 2010, followed by Swisher International Group Inc’s Swisher BlackStone brand with an 18% volume share. This brand is distributed by Clippa Sales. Finally, Arnold André Cigars has a 2% volume share in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • While cigars continues to decline, those who choose to smoke cigars will move towards small cigars and cigarillos due to their lower unit prices and the shorter time they take to smoke. There may also be a move back to traditional cigar smoking practices as legislative restrictions become more stringent. Cigar smoking will be considered more of a special occasion in the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in South Africa - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Philip Morris International Inc acquired Swedish Match South Africa as its global brand owner in September 2009. This included leading smokeless tobacco company Leonard Dingler Pty Ltd which was a wholly-owned subsidiary of Swedish Match South Africa, thus giving Philip Morris International Inc a leading edge within South African smokeless tobacco. In 2010 Swedish Match maintained its third position and it is anticipated that its share will grow once the operations for the two companies are fully consolidated.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Leonard Dingler, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Swedish Match South Africa (owned by Philip Morris International Inc) dominated smokeless tobacco with a 90% volume share in 2010. The global brand owner’s brands include Taxi and Magnet. MLP had a 3% volume share with its Ntsu brand, while Van Erkoms Tobacco (Pty) Ltd held less than 1% volume share in 2010 with its Barbeton brand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco remains very small in South Africa. The majority of its products is snuff, which is used by lower LSM groups as it is the cheapest tobacco product available and is often used for traditional customs, such as by witchdoctors.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 67 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in South Africa - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Whilst pipe tobacco is traditionally used by older Afrikaans and black South Africans, RYO tobacco is primarily used by younger South Africans from lower-income groups. It is bought by those who wish to save money by rolling their own cigarettes.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Swedish Match South Africa leads South African smoking tobacco with a 35% volume share in 2010. The leading four brands within smoking tobacco, all of which are owned by this company, include Boxer, Best Blend, Borkum Riff and Dingler’s Nineteen O’Four and accounted for a combined 22% volume share in 2010. Wesleys had a 6% volume share in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Pipe tobacco is expected to see constant value CAGR of 4% over the forecast period. RYO tobacco is expected to have steady growth, although this will be from a small base. By 2015, RYO tobacco will represent just 1% of total volume sales of smoking tobacco in South Africa.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 76 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 77 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 78 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 79 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 80 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 81 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 83 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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