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Country Report

Tobacco in Thailand

Dec 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco declines on the back of a shrinking smoking population

In 2011, cigarettes declined in volume terms while smoking tobacco slowed down in terms of growth. Cigars posted the strongest volume growth in 2011. Small sales base aside, the improved tourism situation in 2011 benefitted sales of cigars. Within cigarettes, high tar cigarettes continued to dominate volume sales in 2011, followed by mid tar cigarettes and low tar cigarettes. Low tar cigarette was the only cigarettes category to register positive growth in 2011, as a result of the perception that such products are less harmful to health.

The number of smokers continues to decline

In 2011, the prevalence and number of smokers continued to decline in Thailand as a result of constant price increases and extensive anti-smoking campaigns conducted by the government and health organisations. The decline was seen more amongst males than females. In terms of age, the prevalence of smoking amongst young and old people showed a substantial decline; however, smoking amongst adults continues to be significant. Differences were also evident across different consumer groups. For example, there are more smokers in the low-income rural population compared to high-income urban city dwellers.

Domestic brands lose ground against imported counterparts

Thailand Tobacco Monopoly recorded the most significant decline in cigarettes volume share in 2011 even though the organisation is the sole manufacturer and distributor of local tobacco products. On the other hand, foreign companies such as Philip Morris (Thailand) Ltd increased volume share, thanks to young smokers. The rising presence of imported players was also due to their new product launches such as L&M7.1, Marlboro Crisp Mint, Marlboro Gold, Marlboro Black Menthol, which aroused consumers’ interest during 2011.

Smoking ban in public areas becomes even tougher for smokers

From the total ban of smoking in public places in 2008, public areas became more and more restrictive for smokers. In many cases there are both financial penalties and warnings. Even without bans, massive campaigns to discourage smoking in public places have discouraged many smokers from smoking in public places. This may be because the restrictions are not only trying to address second-hand smoke, but also the physical injuries related to smoking, such as lighted cigarettes hitting children’s faces or burning people’s clothing.

Continuing decline expected over the forecast period

A tough situation for tobacco consumption is expected over the forecast period. Smoking is becoming an increasingly antisocial activity, and no longer appeals to the younger generation in terms of fashion. As a result, it is becoming more difficult to cultivate new smokers. In addition, people are becoming more health-conscious due to mandatory health checks. The higher tobacco tax is not helping the situation either, with more people thinking that smoking is becoming too expensive.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Thailand with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Thailand, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Thailand for free:

The Tobacco in Thailand market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Thailand?
  • What are the major brands in Thailand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Thailand?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Thailand?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Thailand?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Thailand in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Thailand?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Thailand - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Tobacco declines on the back of a shrinking smoking population

The number of smokers continues to decline

Domestic brands lose ground against imported counterparts

Smoking ban in public areas becomes even tougher for smokers

Continuing decline expected over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Thailand - Company Profiles

Philip Morris (Thailand) Ltd in Tobacco (Thailand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 Philip Morris (Thailand) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Thailand Tobacco Monopoly in Tobacco (Thailand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 7 Thailand Tobacco Monopoly: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Thailand Tobacco Monopoly: Competitive Position 2011

The Pacific Cigars (Thailand) Co Ltd in Tobacco (Thailand)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Cigarettes in Thailand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • British American Tobacco (Thailand) Ltd which had a market share of less than 3% and a much higher selling price than most imported cigarettes brands in Thailand, was not able to compete and ceased operations in Thailand in 2010. Philip Morris (Thailand) Ltd gained the most from the exit in 2011 as their products are more widely available than other imported brands. While the other major cigarette manufacturer, Japan Tobacco International, third with a share of less than 1%, introduced new packaging to the existing variant of Mild Seven and introduced the new ultra light variant, Mild Seven Wind Blue.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Prior to 1991, Thailand tobacco industry was a monopoly. Even after 1991, when international companies were allowed to enter the Thai market, Thailand Tobacco Monopoly (TTM) remained the leading player in cigarettes and continued to be so in 2011. Thailand Tobacco Monopoly, a state-owned enterprise under the Ministry of Finance, continues to be the sole domestic manufacturer of tobacco products in Thailand. The Finance Ministry has plans to help make operations more efficient by making TTM a corporation rather than listing the state enterprise on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. However, TTM faced strong opposition from the labour union and no move had been reported by the end of the review period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the 2011-2016 period, it is expected that overall, cigarettes will decline with a CAGR of 2%. Due to increasing health awareness, as consumers shift to lower tar products, low tar cigarettes is expected to register the only positive performance, with a projected volume CAGR of under 2%. Because of the growing number of female smokers and the perception that flavoured brands are less harmful to health, the retail volume share of menthol cigarettes is expected to increase by one percentage point to 23% by 2016.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Thailand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigar smoking is perceived as a luxury in Thailand and is largely confined to upper-income groups and foreign tourists. Due to increasing popularity among the middle-classes, a variety of lower-priced cigars has also been available in Thailand since 2005. These include brands from Belgium, such as Neo, and brands from the US, such as Phillies. For upper-income earners, premium brands are popular and price increases are unlikely to affect or change their preferences.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The cigars category in Thailand is fairly evenly split between two companies: Corporación Habanos SA and J Cortes Cigars NV. Cigar brands from Corporación Habanos SA and J Cortes Cigars NV are distributed in the country by key companies, The Pacific Cigar Co Ltd and Siam Havana (Macrorich Co Ltd.). In 2011, brands from these two companies jointly accounted for 74% of volume sales.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 12 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars and cigarillos are most often enjoyed with wines and premium whiskies. The emergence of new locally produced wines will also benefit the popularity of cigars and cigarillos as they tend to go better with wines than other forms of tobacco. Cigars and cigarillos are expected to gain in popularity among both local higher earners and foreign tourists. However, cigars and cigarillos will also continue to grow in popularity among Thais in different age and income groups.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Thailand - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • There are no smokeless tobacco products in Thailand. Electronic cigarettes have not yet been classified as a smokeless tobacco product by the Thai Food and Drug Administration, and are thus not yet legally available in the Thai market place.

Smoking Tobacco in Thailand - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco continued to be dominated by RYO tobacco, which accounted for 99% of all smoking tobacco volume sales in Thailand in 2011. As for imported RYO tobacco, there is no set target group but it is often bought by younger smokers who have higher incomes and like flavoured tobacco. Some RYO tobacco is also interchangeable as pipe tobacco, such as those that are flavored. Therefore, the number of dedicated pipe tobacco brands available in the country is very small. Pipe smoking is viewed as being an old man’s habit and has been declining rapidly.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Smoking tobacco is relatively fragmented with a number of small brands or unbranded products jointly accounting for 45% of volume sales in 2011. Amongst brand manufacturers, Piangjai Industries (1989) Co Ltd was in the leading position in 2011 with a 31% share of category volume sales, followed by Surapayanak Co Ltd with a 24% volume share. Smoking tobacco is dominated by unbranded products from smaller rural-based local operators which are also sold locally and account for the bulk of volume sales. The competitive situation in Thailand in 2011 therefore followed the previous year’s pattern and is not expected to change significantly over the forecast period.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • It is expected that many imported smoking tobacco brands will disappear from the market as it may not be profitable for some brands to continue. The number of retail outlets that offer smoking tobacco products is also decreasing due to waning demand. As a result, volume growth of smoking tobacco over the forecast period is set to slow year-on-year. Locally manufactured unbranded smoking tobacco will continue to dominate the category, while the branded segment is unlikely to see any major new launches of imported products. Importers and distributors are expected to focus their attention on cigars and cigarillos as that category offers stronger and more dynamic prospects as well as potentially higher margins.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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