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Country Report

Tobacco in the Netherlands

Jan 2012

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Netherlands with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Netherlands, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Netherlands for free:

The Tobacco in Netherlands market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Netherlands?
  • What are the major brands in Netherlands?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Netherlands?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Netherlands?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Netherlands?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Netherlands in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Netherlands?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Continuing fall in volume in 2010

Sales of tobacco again saw declining volumes in 2010. The number of people smoking in the Netherlands continued to fall in 2010 as more people were committed to following healthier lifestyles, while the high prices for tobacco serve as an additional incentive to quit. Higher prices for cigarettes created shifts towards cheaper alternatives, impacting manufacturer activity towards promoting products based on price (economy references) or more attractive value-for-money options as a result of a more frugal approach from consumers.

Pack size used as a tool to counteract higher prices

Tobacco companies needed to pursue more measures to counteract the damaging effects of rising prices, as demand shifted towards cheaper products. Manufacturers reduced the number of cigarettes in packs with the 19-unit type being the most popular in 2010. Large packs were also promoted, including XL or XXL, but, with higher prices, these were less attractive to consumers. The shift towards smoking tobacco, including MYO (make-your-own tobacco) or RYO, occurred as it was seen as a more economical alternative to cigarettes, with manufacturers present in this category also competing on price by promoting higher volume offers.

Top multinationals dominate tobacco in 2010

The market for tobacco remained highly concentrated in 2010 with four multinationals – Philip Morris Holland, British American Tobacco Netherlands, JT International Co Netherlands and Imperial Tobacco Netherlands – concentrating most sales in key categories such as cigarettes and smoking tobacco. Large companies faced increased pressure to maintain share due to falling volumes, pursuing more intensive promotional actions focused on price by introducing smaller packs or reinforcing main brands with extensions such as Kent Surround. Smaller niche domestic companies such as Biggelaar Tabak or Heupink & Bloemen profited by consolidating their own brands such as Elixyr or Look out as economy alternatives.

Supermarkets and discounters gain share in distribution

Distribution of tobacco is witnessing an increase in sales through grocery retailers, driven by supermarkets/hypermarkets and discounters. Intense promotional activity by the main chains and extended shopping hours are benefiting the flow of demand towards these channels, while impacting on traditional ones such as tobacco specialists. Large manufacturers within cigars such as Agio Cigars are placing more emphasis on the supermarkets channel in order to profit from the impulse purchases for products such as cigarillos. Although small, the share held by internet retailing is also rapidly expanding, driven by the increasing numbers of consumers choosing the convenience of shopping online.

The market faces poor growth prospects as taxes increase

Tobacco in the Netherlands faces more restrictions in terms of taxation and also changes in consumers’ lifestyles towards healthy living, which are likely to lead to more people stopping smoking. Cigarettes are forecast to suffer continuing volume decline over the forecast period, as the Dutch government is committed to further implementing measures aimed at increasing barriers for consumers to smoke. Taxes on tobacco will further increase in 2011 as more increments are foreseen to further affect prices of cigarettes and smoking tobacco, which may lead to more pressure among manufacturers. Other categories such as cigars are likely to fare better, despite their higher prices.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in the Netherlands - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Continuing fall in volume in 2010

Pack size used as a tool to counteract higher prices

Top multinationals dominate tobacco in 2010

Supermarkets and discounters gain share in distribution

The market faces poor growth prospects as taxes increase

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising and Sponsorship

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty-paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics
  • Table 7 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 8 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in the Netherlands - Company Profiles

Agio Cigars in Tobacco (Netherlands)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 Agio Cigars: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Agio Cigars: Competitive Position 2010

Biggelaar Tabak BV in Tobacco (Netherlands)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Biggelaar Tabak BV: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Holland BV in Tobacco (Netherlands)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 11 Philip Morris Holland BV: Production Statistics 2009

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Philip Morris Holland BV: Competitive Position 2009

Cigarettes in the Netherlands - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of cigarettes experienced further decline in volume terms during 2010, falling by 10% in comparison to the previous year and maintaining the same trend seen over the review period. Demand for cigarettes was impacted by increasing concern among Dutch consumers about health and wellbeing. Sales of cigarettes were further influenced by the introduction of increased excise duties in 2010, resulting in higher cigarette prices, posing additional obstacles for the industry. As a result of higher taxes, offsetting the decline in volume, manufacturers saw value sales growth due to higher unit prices. Cigarette sales faced greater competition from cheaper alternatives such ROY tobacco, with manufacturers present in that category trying to profit from the shift towards cheaper smoking by placing a greater emphasis on quality and price.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarettes in the Netherlands remains highly concentrated among four companies. Philip Morris Holland BV and British American Tobacco Netherlands BV ranked first and second with 37% and 34% volume shares, respectively, in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of cigarettes are expected to continue suffering over the forecast period from higher taxation, more restrictive legislation, and a general consumer desire to pursue healthier lifestyles. The number of people smoking is estimated to continue decreasing over the next five years, as more consumers stop smoking and campaigns focus on younger people in order to avoid them starting with the habit, factors that are likely to impact on declining volume sales for cigarettes over the forecast period.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 14 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 32 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 46 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in the Netherlands - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of cigars are registering healthy growth despite the great restrictions imposed on smoking in the Netherlands. Cigars have a more positive image among consumers, but the consumer base is still considered more restricted to mature males. Even though the Netherlands boasts relatively high cigar consumption, the market continued to grow in volume and value terms during 2010. Manufacturers remain active in promoting more varieties and aiming to create a shift towards more expensive, high-quality formulas and winning new consumers, particularly the younger generations.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigars in the Netherlands shows a high degree of concentration among long-established companies present with an array of strong and popular brands in the categories where they are present. Agio Cigars was the largest manufacturer with a 44% share in 2010, holding a strong position in both cigars and cigarillos. Balmoral and De Huifkar are top-selling brands in the premium segment, while Mehari’s and Panter are the leaders in cigarillos.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars is mature in the Netherlands, but still shows opportunities for growth. With a better image than cigarettes and more exempted from criticism by consumer groups, cigars will benefit with positive growth prospects during the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in the Netherlands - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • At the end of 2010 there was still no smokeless tobacco sold in the Netherlands. These products are not yet approved by the local authorities, although the industry believes this may happen in the short to medium term. Dutch consumers are mainly able to purchase “snus” online and delivered from other countries.

Smoking Tobacco in the Netherlands - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In spite of the great popularity of RYO tobacco in general in the Netherlands, volume sales declined significantly in RYO tobacco in 2010 due to the increase in unit prices stemming from high tax rises, which affected consumer demand and consumption levels. The unit price of RYO tobacco has been increasing steadily for some time, due to high and increasing taxes.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Smoking tobacco is highly concentrated in the Netherlands, with Imperial Tobacco Netherlands being the largest manufacturer with a 53% share in 2010. Imperial Tobacco markets leading domestic brands with a long-established presence and popularity among Dutch consumers such as Drum and Van Nelle.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Sales of smoking tobacco will follow the general trend for the tobacco market in the Netherlands with volumes expected to continue falling over the forecast period. Intensified campaigns to lure consumers to stop or avoid smoking coupled with fiscal measures aimed at creating further barriers for consumers to buy tobacco through higher prices are seen as threatening issues.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 66 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 68 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 69 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 70 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 74 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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