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Country Report

Tobacco in the United Arab Emirates

Feb 2012

Price: US$1,900

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic concerns hinder value growth

High inflation at the start of the review period and real GDP decline in 2009 resulted in rising economic uncertainty for many consumers during the review period. Consequently, there was a marked shift towards cheaper options during the review period. This trend resulted in many consumers trading down to economy products within cigarettes. However, there was also a strong shift towards illicit trade, with this channel offering considerably cheaper cigarettes. Retail sales of cigarettes consequently declined in 2010 over the previous year and during the review period as a whole, while illicit trade saw strong growth.

Government steps up its anti-smoking legislation

For much of the review period, the government was refining a raft of anti-smoking legislation, with this finally being introduced in 2010. This legislation bans smoking in most enclosed public areas, banned smoking in cars carrying passengers under 12-years-old and banned cafés in residential areas from serving cigarettes and shisha. However, the impact of this legislation was muted in 2010, partly due to a number of individual emirates needing to create their own by-laws in response. Dubai has meanwhile had a public smoking ban in place since 2007. However, neither the Dubai nor the national smoking ban includes nightclubs or bars in its list of public places where it is not permitted to smoke.

Tobacco specialists and supermarkets/hypermarkets gain share

Tobacco specialists and supermarkets/hypermarkets are the leading distribution channels for tobacco products, with both channels continuing to gain share in 2010 over the previous year. These channels benefit from offering the widest range of products. They also benefited from tighter government controls over tobacco products retailing in 2010. Independent small grocers, forecourt retailers and newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks faced more frequent spot checks to ensure their compliance with retailing legislation at the end of the review period, with a particular focus on underage sales. As a result, many of these outlets began to scale back their range of tobacco products or ceased to offer tobacco products at all, with these channels thus losing share to supermarkets/hypermarkets and tobacco specialists.

Strong global players lead cigarettes and cigars

A trio of strong multinationals dominate cigarettes, with Philip Morris, Imperial Tobacco and British American Tobacco benefiting from well-regarded brands such as Marlboro, Davidoff and Benson & Hedges respectively. These brands benefit from a reputation for quality and also from their wide distribution networks. Cigars is also led by multinationals, with Corporación Habanos and Davidoff again benefiting from a premium image and wide distribution. Smoking tobacco is in contrast dominated by domestic players, however, with Kamber Jaffer and AFCO together accounting for a dominant volume share. These players offer the widest range of flavours in pipe tobacco and also have the widest distribution, with Kamber Jaffer notably being particularly strong via supermarkets/hypermarkets.

Muted growth ahead for forecast period

Tobacco products is expected to see only a muted constant value growth during the forecast period, with growth being constrained by a number of factors. Firstly, the government is expected to enforce its anti-smoking legislation with increasing force during the forecast period and is contemplating further measures, such as a ban on smoking on beaches and a further increase in tax. Government health campaigns are meanwhile likely to result in many attempting to cut back on smoking or to give up altogether for the sake of their health. In addition, the strong sales of illicit cigarettes will continue to constrain legal retail sales. Illicit trade is notably set to see dynamic growth during the forecast period, while retail volume sales of cigarettes are expected to stagnate.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in United Arab Emirates with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in United Arab Emirates, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in United Arab Emirates for free:

The Tobacco in United Arab Emirates market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in United Arab Emirates?
  • What are the major brands in United Arab Emirates?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in United Arab Emirates?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in United Arab Emirates?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in United Arab Emirates?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in United Arab Emirates in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in United Arab Emirates?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in the United Arab Emirates - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic concerns hinder value growth

Government steps up its anti-smoking legislation

Tobacco specialists and supermarkets/hypermarkets gain share

Strong global players lead cigarettes and cigars

Muted growth ahead for forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown : Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 5 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2006-2010
  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in the United Arab Emirates - Company Profiles

British American Tobacco Middle East & North Africa in Tobacco (United Arab Emirates)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 British American Tobacco Middle East & North Africa: Competitive Position 2010

Imperial Tobacco Group Plc in Tobacco (United Arab Emirates)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Imperial Tobacco Group Plc: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris International Inc in Tobacco (United Arab Emirates)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Philip Morris International Inc: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in the United Arab Emirates - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The recession did not typically impact smokers’ volume consumption of cigarettes. Some consumers switched to cheaper brands as a result of the economic downturn, as they sought to save money, but few consumers opted to smoker fewer cigarettes. This shift towards lower-priced cigarettes consequently resulted in economy cigarettes gaining almost a percentage point in volume share in 2011 over the previous year, rising to account for 12% share.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Tobacco products is not a monopoly in the United Arab Emirates. Instead, large multinationals control sales. There are no domestic producers that sell cigarettes in the country. There are a number of cigarette producers in the country’s free trade zones, such as Five Star International and Walford Tobacco Company. However, these producers solely focus on exports.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 9 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes may face a sharp rise in tax during the forecast period, which could hinder sales. According to trade sources, the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Economy are considering plans to double the taxation of cigarettes. Trade sources do not expect this tax to be agreed, as it would increase the price of a standard pack of cigarettes to AED12, which could result in a shift towards illicit sales. However, if tax were to be doubled in this manner it would impact volume sales and encourage many low-income smokers to switch to smoking tobacco and many mid-income smokers to trade down.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 10 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in the United Arab Emirates - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Traditionally, cigar smoking was limited to only upper-mid- and high-income consumers in the United Arab Emirates, as a result of these products’ high prices. Cigars consequently benefited from a luxury image at the end of the review period. Many consumers view a cigar as a status symbol, with many high-income and aspirational mid-income men thus opting to smoke cigars in public.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Corporación Habanos and Davidoff were the clear leaders in cigars in 2010, accounting for 23% and 10% volume share respectively. Davidoff’s share is built on the brand equity of its eponymous brand, with many consumers associating Davidoff with luxury and quality. Corporación Habanos meanwhile benefits from its Cuban heritage and offers a number of popular brands, including Montecristo, Romeo y Julieta and Cohiba. Both players benefit from a wide distribution reach in the country, with Corporación Habanos notably using strong distributor BME as its exclusive representative in the United Arab Emirates. In addition to distributing the company’s products to a wide range of other retailers, BME also operates seven tobacco specialist outlets in the United Arab Emirates under the La Casa del Habano franchise.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars is expected to benefit from a return to stronger economic growth in the United Arab Emirates during the forecast period. As disposable income levels rise, the mid-income group is expected to continue to become more significant, more affluent and also more aspirational. These consumers are expected to drive growth for cigars during the forecast period, viewing these products as status symbols.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in the United Arab Emirates - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • There is no tradition for smokeless tobacco in the United Arab Emirates, with sales remaining negligible. Sales of these products are largely limited to expatriates from countries where smokeless tobacco is popular, particularly Scandinavian countries and India. Most consumers however remain largely unaware of these products.

Distribution

Competitive Landscape

Prospects

Smoking Tobacco in the United Arab Emirates - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The tradition of pipe smoking is strong in the United Arab Emirates, with many indulging in shisha smoking. Shisha smoking is considerably more socially acceptable and affordable in comparison to cigarettes. Being viewed by many young consumers as fashionable, shisha smoking is particularly common among women and teenagers, while many expatriates view shisha smoking as both exotic and as a part of the culture of the United Arab Emirates.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Kamber Jaffer Trading was a clear leader in smoking tobacco at the end of the review period, accounting for 31% volume share. This was entirely derived from pipe tobacco, where the company led with 44% share in 2010 and offered the Nakhla, Bahraini and Havana brands. These brands have the strongest distribution via supermarkets/hypermarkets and thus reach a wide range of consumers. The company also benefits from its long heritage in pipe tobacco, having been the first company in the United Arab Emirates to offer these products. Consequently, its range enjoys a high degree of consumer trust.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Shisha smoking will face stronger restrictions during the forecast period. The Federal National Council endorsed legislation in 2010 stating that cafés in residential buildings or residential areas may not serve cigarettes or shisha. Outlets that wish to do so must relocate by 2013 unless they obtain a special license. This legislation is expected to be strictly enforced, particularly within Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and is thus likely to hinder on-trade sales of pipe tobacco. This is expected to result in a growing shift towards smoking shisha at home, with shisha becoming a more frequent fixture at parties.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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