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Country Report

Tobacco in Tunisia

Jul 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Anti-tobacco legislation comes into force

The decree of 14 September 2009 came into force on 19 January 2010. The new law stipulates that small foodservice outlets of less than 50 sq. m should designate a maximum of 15 sq. m as a smoking area. For larger outlets, one half of their space must be dedicated to smokers. The new legislation also stipulates that cafés and restaurants should be equipped with fume extractors. Moreover, non-smoking areas should be clearly visible to customers. Even though the new law has come into force, the smoking population continued to increase in Tunisia. Smoking among women and teenagers remained the main factor behind the increase in the smoking population in 2010.

Illicit trade keeps on growing

The introduction of illegal foreign tobacco brands increased in 2010. Already under Ben Ali’s regime, a high level of corruption encouraged the smuggling of substandard and fake brands into the country. These brands were sold on the streets and in the main popular markets. Their lower prices and the growth of local brands were the main factors behind the strong performance of illicit cigarettes. In addition, famous local brands like 20 Mars International witnessed degradation in their quality, which pushed many smokers to shift to international brands. Last, but not least, the power vacuum that followed the Tunisian Revolution of January 2011 helped illicit traders to thrive.

The leading player RNTA reacts to its 2009 deficit

2009 was not a good year for the leading player, Régie Nationale des Tabacs et des Allumettes (RNTA). The company recorded losses of TND20 million. The deficit was caused by the use of raw materials imported from India for the production of the leading brand, 20 Mars International, and the overall decline in product quality that ensued. Moreover, selling a part of the company to one of the ex-president’s relatives also contributed to its financial distress. To overcome this deficit, RNTA increased the price of international brands in order to regain its customers, who had started to shift to their perceived better quality products. However, this strategy failed due to the widespread availability of illicit cigarettes which offer lower prices.

Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remains the main distribution channel

Although street vendors developed in terms of number and product range, licensed newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks, widely known as komrek, remained the main distribution channel for all tobacco types in 2010. The wide presence of these outlets in strategic places like town centres, outside metro and bus stations, was behind their good performance. Moreover, the wide offer presented in terms of local and international brands has also contributed to the dominance of this distribution channel.

Political turmoil is predicted to impact tobacco in Tunisia

It is predicted that the political turmoil, following the ousting of Ben Ali in January 2011, will impact the tobacco industry. On 26 January 2011, RNTA was shaken by staff protests against the supposed involvement of the ex-president’s relatives in the company’s decision to import poor quality raw materials from India. In order to ease the situation, the company’s board has promised to introduce a more efficient and transparent management structure, free from corruption and political embezzlement. However, as long as there is a lack of control and insecurity, whether at the borders or in the streets, illegal trade will continue to threaten legitimate sales of tobacco products.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Tunisia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Tunisia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Tunisia for free:

The Tobacco in Tunisia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Tunisia?
  • What are the major brands in Tunisia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Tunisia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Tunisia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Tunisia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Tunisia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Tunisia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Tunisia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Anti-tobacco legislation comes into force

Illicit trade keeps on growing

The leading player RNTA reacts to its 2009 deficit

Newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks remains the main distribution channel

Political turmoil is predicted to impact tobacco in Tunisia

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC LEGISLATION

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

Sources

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Tunisia - Company Profiles

Régie Nationale des Tabacs et des Allumettes (RNTA) in Tobacco (Tunisia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Régie Nationale des Tabacs et des Allumettes (RNTA): Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The main trend in 2010 was the positive result achieved by the National Programme Against Tobacco Use. With 2009 designated anti-tobacco year, 250 doctors received training to help smokers quit the habit. The programme is believed to have helped to curb smoking prevalence in 2009 and 2010. According to a census, among the 40,000 smokers who received medical assistance, 10,000 successfully quit smoking.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The Tunisian tobacco industry is characterised by the monopoly of the state-owned company RNTA. The company recorded financial losses of TND20 million in 2010. This was mainly due to the deterioration of the leading local brand, 20 Mars International, and the increase in prices for both local and international brands. Such factors led consumers to shift to illegal trade alternatives. Whilst RNTA’s management was widely criticised for poor strategic decisions, losing significant company/brand shares, it is very unlikely that it will undergo privatisation.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Over the forecast period, constant value sales are expected to decrease by a 2% CAGR, while retail volume sales are expected to grow very slowly. The predicted decrease in constant value sales is due to the consumer shift to less expensive brands. Also, the further development of the illicit trade will push smokers to quit RNTA’s products in favour of fake or counterfeit alternatives. Smoking prevalence is expected to see an upturn, especially among male adults, due to the thriving informal trade of cigarettes and the general lack of confidence in the new political system to alleviate poverty.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 6 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking cigars and cigarillos is not new for Tunisians, although it reflects the social class of the consumer, as consumption remains restricted to wealthy people and tourists.

Hand-made versus machine manufactured splits

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The state-owned company RNTA remained the dominant player in cigars (excluding cigarillos) in Tunisia in 2010, increasing its retail volume share by three percentage points to reach 84%. This strong performance was due to the absence of significant competitors and the company’s total control of cigars imports and pricing.

New Product Developments

Distribution

PROSPECTS

  • Constant value sales are projected to decrease by a 2% CAGR over the forecast period. This decline is partly due to the negative effect of political and economic turmoil on the tourism industry. Moreover, expected price increases will weaken demand and sales, and some Tunisian cigar smokers are anticipated to shift to other products like premium cigarettes.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco is losing retail volume and value shares in tobacco because of changing lifestyles. It is perceived as old-fashioned to consume neffa and the main purchasers are elderly people in southern Tunisia, where it is a traditional type of tobacco. Moreover, RNTA has not pushed sales, focusing instead on cigarettes and smoking tobacco.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • RNTA is the sole supplier of neffa in Tunisia. There is no presence of international snuff brands in the market. Cross-border sales are common in the south of the country, but they are considered illegal, and, therefore, excluded from Euromonitor International’s coverage.

New Product Developments

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco sales are expected to decline by a 5% retail volume CAGR over the forecast period. Demographic trends in Tunisia mean that the practice will eventually die out as younger Tunisians prefer smoking cigarettes or shisha.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 67 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smoking Tobacco in Tunisia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe tobacco remains a very popular product in Tunisia due to the widespread use of shisha, the traditional water pipe. Smoking shisha is rooted in Tunisian culture and consumption usually rises during Ramadan. This habit is also widespread in Tunisian daily life as passing the time at a café with friends while smoking shisha is the main form of socialising of most Tunisian men. Additionally, this tradition is popular among tourists and Tunisian women, who have started to take on the habit.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

Distribution

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • RNTA continued its dominance of smoking tobacco in Tunisia in 2010, accounting for a 74% share of retail volume sales. The company manufactures and distributes the four major brands present in Tunisia: Jirak, Moassel Cheikh El Baled, Moassel El Kef and zaghloul. In 2010, Moassel El Kef leads with a 31% share of retail volume sales.

New Product Developments

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco sales are expected to decrease by a 3% constant value CAGR over the forecast period. Sales will be negatively impacted early in the forecast period by the projected decline in tourism due to political instability and the civil war in neighbouring Libya.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 76 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 77 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 78 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 79 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 80 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 81 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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