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Country Report

Tobacco in Venezuela

Oct 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette sales fall further due to limited purchasing power

Although the country’s macroeconomic variables began to show signs of recovery after two years of negative performance, this general wellbeing did not reach the average Venezuelan in 2011. In this sense, Venezuelans continued to deal with limited purchasing power, which forced them to focus on vital living expenses such as rent and food, with luxuries such as cigarettes and alcoholic drinks taking a back seat. The result was reduced frequency of consumption among smokers, which led to a continuation of the volume decline seen every year since 2007.

Premiumisation trend expands to cigars

Premium cigars continued to grow as Venezuelan smokers looked for high-quality products as their smoking habits became more sophisticated. The cigar culture has changed in the country to such an extent that even though Venezuelans are smoking fewer cigars, they are trading up to better quality products. In this sense, there has been a switch from economy to standard cigars as well as from standard to premium brands.

Price increases within economy cigarettes above annual rate of inflation

Companies operating within the Venezuelan legislative environment face the challenge of maintaining their sales in the face of strict advertising and promotion regulations, smoking bans, rising taxation and limited purchasing power. Tabacalera Nacional and Cigarrera Bigott are implementing similar strategies - maintaining price increments at the lowest end of the economy segment while increasing the prices of mid-priced and premium brands above the annual rate of inflation.

Public smoking ban impacts the performance of tobacco products

Although it is too soon to predict the overall effects of the smoking ban on cigarette demand, the ban without a doubt is a concern to tobacco companies and restaurants, bars and nightclub owners due to the close link between smoking and consuming alcoholic drinks. This situation not only affects cigarettes but also cigars as a large number of smokers used to consume these products in restaurants as part of their social activities. In fact, cigar sampling in public places like restaurants, which became very common in key cities in the country as a strategy to capture younger consumers, is now banned.

Cigarette industry to be threatened by tax legislation over the forecast period

The main threat to the growth of cigarettes will be higher taxation, which is expected as the government has stated its intention to reduce smoking prevalence in the country. Manufacturers will have to focus on developing strategies to drive growth under these conditions. The lack of access to foreign currency, either to import raw materials or finished premium products, will also continue to affect cigarettes’ performance as no major positive developments are likely to arise in the coming years. As a result of these variables, it is anticipated that cigarette volume sales will continue to fall to 2016.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Venezuela with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Venezuela, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Venezuela for free:

The Tobacco in Venezuela market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Venezuela?
  • What are the major brands in Venezuela?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Venezuela?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Venezuela?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Venezuela?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Venezuela in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Venezuela?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Venezuela - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette sales fall further due to limited purchasing power

Premiumisation trend expands to cigars

Price increases within economy cigarettes above annual rate of inflation

Public smoking ban impacts the performance of tobacco products

Cigarette industry to be threatened by tax legislation over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2011

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Production/Imports/Exports 2007-2011

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Venezuela - Company Profiles

CA Cigarrera Bigott Sucs in Tobacco (Venezuela)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 4 CA Cigarrera Bigott Sucs: Competitive Position 2011

CA Tabacalera Nacional in Tobacco (Venezuela)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 CA Tabacalera Nacional: Competitive Position 2011

Fábrica de Chimó El Tigrito CA in Tobacco (Venezuela)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Fábrica de Chimó El Tigrito CA: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Venezuela - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2011, the performance of cigarettes continued to be influenced above all by the fact that Venezuelans continued to face limited purchasing power, which forced them to prioritise vital living expenses such as rent and food at the expense of luxuries such as cigarettes and alcoholic drinks. Even though the country’s macroeconomic variables began to show signs of recovery after two years of negative performance (2009 and 2010), this general wellbeing did not reach the average Venezuelan.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • CA Cigarrera Bigott Sucs maintained its dominance of the cigarette industry in 2011, boasting a volume share of 90%. The company remained way ahead of its rivals throughout the review period on the basis of its possession of traditional brands. Venezuelan consumers are quite brand loyal in the case of cigarettes, with the company’s mid-priced brand Belmont and economy brand Consul together commanding an 87% share of volume sales in 2011. Cigarrera Bigott also has excellent distribution and a strong manufacturing capability in Venezuela, and continues to refresh its image through internet advertising.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The negative impact of 2011’s smoking ban is likely to be one of the most important issues for cigarette companies over 2012-2016. Over this period, cigarette consumption in on-trade establishments such as bars and restaurants is expected to continue to fall as a result of the ban. Trade sources continue to indicate the importance of alcoholic drinks in cigarette consumption, and the increased difficulty of combining the two will concern tobacco companies. The public smoking ban will also help to reduce the acceptance of smoking.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 9 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Venezuela - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Traditional cigar culture in Venezuela targeted only affluent men over the age of 40. However, there are signs that this is starting to change, and increased dynamism has been detected in Venezuelan cigars as more consumers aspire to the good living, which goes hand in hand with the consumption of premium quality cigars. Importers of premium cigars are looking to expand the culture in the country via activities such as cigar tasting in restaurants. However, with the introduction of the ban on smoking in public places, these activities have been declining and have become more clandestine and private.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Local cigar manufacturer Fábrica de Tabacos Bermúdez CA remained the major player in cigars in 2011 with a 61% volume share. The company produces the leading brand in the Venezuelan market, Crispin Patiño, which alone held a 44% volume share in 2011, as well as second-ranked brand Bermúdez with a 17% share. The company dominated the category throughout the review period and long before as a result of its long tradition in Venezuela, operating for over a century.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 10 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Premium cigars are expected to continue to grow compared to other cigar types over the 2011-2016 period. Although purchasing power is not likely to see any significant improvement, consumer habits and preferences are changing and consumers are becoming more educated and sophisticated, leading more of them to demand the best quality products.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 56 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 57 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 61 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Venezuela - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Venezuela’s tradition for smokeless tobacco can be entirely attributed to an artisanal local variety known as chimó. This product was considered marginal and restricted to rural areas up to 2000 but since then has begun to appear among urban youths. Anti-drug groups have become concerned about its heavy consumption among young students (consumers are typically aged between 13 and 25 according to the NGO Cátedra Libre Antidrogas) and the products are often laced with addictive additives.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Fábrica de Chimó El Tigrito CA continued to lead the category in 2011 with a 65% volume share. The company’s product is instantly recognisable and enjoys widespread distribution throughout the country as well as a favourable price point, both of which contribute to its longstanding popularity.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco’s growth rate is projected to continue to slow as the government is trying to reduce consumption, especially among younger consumers. Over the forecast period, it is expected that there will be more rigorous control to penalise those who sell to minors.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 66 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 67 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 68 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in Venezuela - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Venezuela does not have a strong tradition for smoking tobacco. Pipe tobacco is very limited, and used only by older and upper-income men. RYO tobacco is also quite rare and is stigmatised by its association with drug use. Both products are considered expensive for typical consumers.

THE ROLE AND EFFECT OF CANNABIS/MARIJUANA

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarrera Macedonia continued to lead smoking tobacco in 2011 with a 56% volume share. Its two major brands Cereza and Caporal are both domestically produced traditional pipe tobacco brands. They are able to maintain a large share of sales in part due to their price advantage over imported products such as Borkum Riff from Swedish Match AB. The brands offered by Cigarrera Macedonia have a long tradition in the country, with elderly smokers used to buying them in tobacco specialists.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • The ban on smoking in public places which took effect in the middle of 2011 is expected to have a major influence on the performance of smoking tobacco over 2011-2016. The inability to light up in bars and restaurants will reduce consumption among social smokers of RYO and pipe tobacco, pushing volumes downward.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 76 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 77 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 78 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 79 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 80 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 81 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 83 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 85 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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