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Country Report

Transportation in Kenya

Dec 2012

Price: US$900

About this Report

Executive Summary

TRENDS

  • Growth has been positive throughout the review period except for the year 2008 which showed a decline attributed to the instability at that time. The growth rate has nonetheless declined in 2011 to 2%, compared to double-digit growth in 2010 and 2009, and also in the period preceding 2008 when growth reached 23% in 2007 and 10% in 2006. The industry has still not recovered its pre-2008 levels of KES77 billion, and that is mainly due to the lower prices that followed the crisis in 2008. There is also a general trend towards travellers trading down and seeking lower pricing options in light of the global economic downturn that plagued the world during 2008 and 2009, in addition to returning economic worries across Europe in 2011.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • National carrier Kenya Airways continues to lead the market despite a decline in profits this year. The company is a member of the SkyTeam alliance and it launched a new plan, “Project Mawingu”, in April 2012, whereby it aims to increase the number of destinations served to 24 by the year 2021. This will include, among others, new services to Australia, and North and South America, and an increased presence in Asia and the Middle East. The decline in profits is due to the increased competitiveness of other carriers, notably local carrier Air Kenya which is competing fiercely on local routes. Kenya Airways is planning to spend close to US$3.6 billion during the coming five years to acquire new planes and develop more routes. And in order to overcome the potentially long term decline in arrivals from Europe and traffic between the two continents it will aim to increase traffic between Africa and Asia.

PROSPECTS

  • Improved infrastructure throughout the country and a relatively positive forecast for outbound, domestic and inbound tourism will lead to growth in transportation too. Growth should exceed a CAGR of 4% in constant value terms during the forecast period to reach KES86.9 billion in 2016, and air will remain the leading source of income for the category, with KES52.2 billion generated by the air transportation industry.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Transportation industry in Kenya with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Transportation industry in Kenya, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Transportation in Kenya market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Transportation in Kenya?
  • What are the major brands in Kenya?
  • Is there a move from schedule to low cost carriers?
  • Is there a shift away from air to rail?
  • How well is capacity aligned with utilisation?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Travel And Tourism market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Transportation in Kenya - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Growth has been positive throughout the review period except for the year 2008 which showed a decline attributed to the instability at that time. The growth rate has nonetheless declined in 2011 to 2%, compared to double-digit growth in 2010 and 2009, and also in the period preceding 2008 when growth reached 23% in 2007 and 10% in 2006. The industry has still not recovered its pre-2008 levels of KES77 billion, and that is mainly due to the lower prices that followed the crisis in 2008. There is also a general trend towards travellers trading down and seeking lower pricing options in light of the global economic downturn that plagued the world during 2008 and 2009, in addition to returning economic worries across Europe in 2011.

AIRLINES

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • National carrier Kenya Airways continues to lead the market despite a decline in profits this year. The company is a member of the SkyTeam alliance and it launched a new plan, “Project Mawingu”, in April 2012, whereby it aims to increase the number of destinations served to 24 by the year 2021. This will include, among others, new services to Australia, and North and South America, and an increased presence in Asia and the Middle East. The decline in profits is due to the increased competitiveness of other carriers, notably local carrier Air Kenya which is competing fiercely on local routes. Kenya Airways is planning to spend close to US$3.6 billion during the coming five years to acquire new planes and develop more routes. And in order to overcome the potentially long term decline in arrivals from Europe and traffic between the two continents it will aim to increase traffic between Africa and Asia.

PROSPECTS

  • Improved infrastructure throughout the country and a relatively positive forecast for outbound, domestic and inbound tourism will lead to growth in transportation too. Growth should exceed a CAGR of 4% in constant value terms during the forecast period to reach KES86.9 billion in 2016, and air will remain the leading source of income for the category, with KES52.2 billion generated by the air transportation industry.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 1 Transportation Sales by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Transportation Sales: Internet Transaction Value 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Airline Capacity: 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Air by Category: Passengers Carried: 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Airline Passengers Carried by Distance: 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Airline National Brand Owner Market Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 7 Airline Brands by Key Performance Indicators 2011
  • Table 8 Forecast Transportation Sales by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 9 Forecast Transportation Sales: Internet Transaction Value 2011-2016

Travel and Tourism in Kenya - Industry Context

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Renewed tensions spark new fears

Ambitious long term vision

Increasing supply in travel accommodation

A new airport for Kisumu

Diversifying the tourism product

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Opportunities in recovery

National tourism strategy

Legislative environment – Voting the tourism act

Terrorism and security

Boosting the market’s workforce

Wildlife and natural assets threatened

Towards diversification

DEMAND FACTORS

  • Table 10 Leave Entitlement: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Holiday Takers by Age: % Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Seasonality of Trips 2006-2011

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

  • Table 13 Balance of Tourism Payments: Value 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

DEFINITIONS

Tourism Flows

Tourism Receipts and Expenditure

Travel Accommodation

Transportation

Car Rental

Travel Retail

Tourist Attractions

Online Sales

Health and Wellness

SOURCES

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Transportation
    • Transportation by Category
      • Air
        • Air by Category
          • Charter
          • Low Cost Carriers
          • Schedule
        • Air by Channel
          • Air Online
            • Air Direct Suppliers
            • Air Intermediaries
          • Air Offline
        • Air by Distance
          • Long Haul
          • Short Haul
        • Airline Capacity
          • Charter (Airline Capacity)
          • Low Cost Carriers (Airline Capacity)
          • Schedule (Airline Capacity)
      • Other Transportation
        • Other Transportation by Category
          • Bus/Coach
          • Chauffeur-Driven Car
          • Cruise
          • Ferry
          • Rail
        • Other Transportation by Channel
          • Other Transportation Online
            • Other Transportation Direct Suppliers
            • Other Transportation Intermediaries
          • Other Transportation Offline
    • Transportation by Channel
      • Transportation Online
        • Transportation Direct Suppliers
          • Air Direct Suppliers
          • Other Transportation Direct Suppliers
        • Transportation Intermediaries
          • Air Intermediaries
          • Other Transportation Intermediaries
      • Transportation Offline
        • Air Offline
        • Other Transportation Offline

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Analysis by distance
  • Internet transactions
  • Key performance indicators
  • Passengers carried by airport

Market size details:

  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Number of people
  • Number of people % growth
  • Number of people per capita
  • Internet transaction value retail selling price % growth
  • Internet transaction value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Internet transaction value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Offline value retail selling price % growth
  • Offline value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Offline value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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