10 Global Consumer Trends for the Next Five Years

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. The Search for Value

2. A More Cautious Approach to Credit

3. People Power

4. Multicultural Consumerism

5. The Fight against Obesity

6. New Attitudes towards Growing Old

7. Experience-based Consumption

8. The Rise in Social Responsibility

9. The Chemical Backlash

10. Mobile Cocooning

Summary 1 The 10 Global Consumer Trends and their Impact 2012

INTRODUCTION

TREND 1: THE SEARCH FOR VALUE

Trend Outline

Consumers want more bang for their buck
Euromonitor survey confirms consumers’ love of bargains
Chart 1 Consumer Shopping Habits 2011

Implications

Less loyalty, more research
Growth of online shopping
Group buying takes off
Diversifying into health
Price comparison websites
Discounters benefit from no frills approach
Fixed price stores boom
Chart 2 Global Retail Growth vs Growth in Discounters and Internet Retailing 2008-2012
Fast fashion
A loss of loyalty

Outlook

Chart 3 Forecast Global Consumer Expenditure and Prices 2011-2016

TREND 2: A CAUTIOUS RETURN TO BORROWING

Trend Outline

From boom to bust
Higher saving rates
Table 1 Saving Rates 2006/2011/2016
Slowdown in lending
Surge in education loans
Signs of change
Chart 4 Consumer Credit: Global Outstanding Balance per Household 2007/2012

Implications

Impact on financial cards
Table 2 Number of Credit, Debit and Pre-paid Cards in Circulation 2007/2012/2017
Chinese take to credit cards
Chart 5 Leading Growth Markets for Personal Credit Cards 2007/2012
New types of lending emerge
Peer-to-peer lending

Outlook

Slow recovery of credit
Education lending will remain buoyant
Credit unions may put pressure on provide the ideal solution
Chart 6 Global Consumer Credit Balance: Forecast Growth by Category 2012/2017

TREND 3: PEOPLE POWER

Trend Outline

Word-of-mouse
Chart 7 “How Often Do You Read Online Reviews?”, by Country 2011
The impact of Twitter
Crowdsourcing

Implications

Tourism and foodservice rely on positive feedback
The problem of false reviews
Making the most of social media
Celebrity endorsement is big business
The merits of crowdsourcing
Crowdsourced apps

Outlook

Chart 8 Number of Internet Users 2011-2016

TREND 4: MULTICULTURAL CONSUMERISM

Trend Outline

Greater ethnic mix
Minorities gain economic clout
Religious diversity
Table 3 Selected Religions by Country 2010

Implications

Eating habits become more adventurous
Celebrity chefs popularise exotic ingredients
Ethnic trendsetters
Chart 9 Sales of Spicy Chilli/Pepper Sauces in the US 2007/2012/2017
Religious preferences create new demand
Ethnic beauty
A growing segment
Summary 2 Selected Ethnic Beauty and Personal Care Launches 2010-2012
Clothing

Outlook

More room for growth
Targeted marketing

TREND 5: THE FIGHT AGAINST OBESITY

Trend Outline

The problem
The cause
The solutions
Table 4 Obesity Rates by Country 2006/2011/2016

Implications

Consumers look for a quick fix
Chart 10 Respondents “On a Diet Trying to Lose Weight” by Country 2011
Chart 11 Respondents “On a Diet Trying to Lose Weight” by Age 2011
Chart 12 Importance of “Limited Fat Consumption” by Country 2011
Impact on retail markets
Table 5 Global Sales of Weight Management Products 2006/2011/2016
Table 6 Global Sales of Selected Better-for-you Products 2007/2012/2017
Foodservice focuses on calories
Adapting clothing to new body shapes

Outlook

Obesity rates may finally stabilise
Is stevia the answer?
Opportunities in plus-size clothing
Chart 13 Forecast Growth in Obesity Rates by Country 2011-2016

TREND 6: NEW ATTITUDES TO GROWING OLD

Trend Outline

Blurring of age boundaries
Postponing old age
Focus on health and wellness
Table 7 Healthy Life Expectancy by Country 2006/2011/2016
Internet creates level playing field
Chart 14 Internet Usage 2011

Implications

Opportunities in beauty products and services
The use of glamorous role models
Table 8 Global Sales of Age-related Beauty Products 2006/2011/2016
Opportunities in health and wellness
Table 9 Global Sales of Age-related Health and Wellness Products 2007/2012/2017
Boom in cosmetic procedures

Outlook

Age will be just a number
The ongoing quest for eternal youth

TREND 7: EXPERIENCE-BASED CONSUMPTION

Trend Outline

Money can make you happy
Seeking the feel-good factor
Emerging market consumers find new ways to spend wealth
Chart 15 Intentions Regarding Spending Habits by Country 2011

Implications

Arrivals continue to rise
Chart 16 Global Arrivals 2006/2011/2016
Developing markets drive outbound tourism
Japanese discover the pleasures of budget flying
Experiential travel
The search for more exotic destinations
Chart 17 Growth in Arrivals: Top 20 Countries 2006/2011
Daily deal sites fuel demand for experiences
All in the service
Restaurants make customers more welcome

Outlook

Quality of life will be paramount
Make way for the Chinese
Table 10 Departures from China 2006/2011
Leisure outlets set for growth
Chart 18 Top 10 Growth Markets for Spas 2011/2016
Chart 19 Top 10 Growth Markets for Theme Parks 2011/2016
Chart 20 Top 10 Growth Markets for Specialist Coffee Shops 2011/2016

TREND 8: THE RISE IN SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

Trend Outline

Consumers show more compassion
Growing interest in ethical issues
Chart 21 Importance of Green/Ethical Descriptors When Considering a Purchase, by Country 2011
Consumers willing to pay the price
Chart 22 Willingness to Pay More for Ethical Products, by Type and by Country 2011
Companies step up CSR efforts
Cause marketing gains popularity

Implications

The growth of fair-trade
Table 11 Fairtrade Sales in Leading Countries 2010-2011
Consumers demand locally-sourced products
Free range foods go mainstream
Eco-tourism: luxury without guilt

Outlook

Consumers will seek “three-dimensional” brands
Opportunities in emerging markets
Animal welfare concerns drive free range growth

TREND 9: THE CHEMICAL BACKLASH

Trend Outline

Demand for all things natural
Chinese consumers concerned about food safety
Chart 23 Attributes that Respondents Are Willing to Pay More for, by Country 2011
Organic regulations
Confusion over labels
Fake claims deter consumers
Chart 24 Trustworthiness of Descriptors when Used to Label Products, by Country 2011

Implications

Impact on ingredients suppliers
Botanical extracts in demand
Chemicals gain bad publicity
Summary 3 Impact of Chemical Backlash on Ingredients Industry
Impact on packaged food
Growing demand for NH food and drink
Table 12 Global Sales of Naturally Healthy (NH) Food and Drink 2007/2012/2017
Organic benefits from natural image
Table 13 Global Sales of Organic Packaged Food 2007/2012/2017
Restaurants sources more natural ingredients
Natural beauty
Increased distribution
Summary 4 Selected Natural Beauty and Personal Care Launches in the US 2011-2012
Big brands fight back

Outlook

Plenty of potential, but transparency needed
Opportunities in the ingredients industry
Monk fruit extract has the potential to rival stevia
Combining nature with science
Table 14 Forecast Sales of Natural Ingredients 2011/2016

TREND 10: MOBILE COCOONING

Trend Outline

Increasing reliance on digital devices
Smartphones used most for emailing and internet browsing
Chart 25 Mobile Phone Use by Country 2011

Implications

Rapid growth in smartphone sales
The emergence of tablets
Chart 26 Global Sales of Smart Devices 2006/2011/2016
Table 15 Smartphones as a % All Mobile Phones 2006/2011/2016
Smart shopping
The SoLoMo revolution
Apps development
The challenge of monetising content
A new market of mobile gamers
Commercial opportunities

Outlook

Potential in emerging markets
Smartphones to become accessible to all
Hybrid smart devices will create new demand
Table 16 World’s Leading Markets for Smart Devices by Country 2011/2016
SoLoMo will continue to evolve
In-app purchase models will help monetise content
Chart 27 Global Mobile App Store Downloads 2011-2016

---