Airlines - Exploring the Potential of New Destinations

Introduction

Scope

Overview

Key findings

GDP and consumer expenditure forecast

Population and poverty levels

High proportion of youth - short-term drag but offers potential

Business dynamics

Mozambique

Geographic location

Macro environment

Top trading partners

Natural resources production - sound long-term potential

Second largest recipient of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa

Local players limited reach

Air connectivity is established with good international routes

Baseline tourism demand shows fair balance for tourism flows

Tourism demand forecast scenarios

Scenario impact in numbers

Measuring the scenario impact from 2020 baseline

Global crisis: Comparative impact on arrivals by country

Drivers of inbound demand

Overdependency on South Africa, but diverse source markets

Global crisis: Comparative impact on departures by country

Drivers of outbound demand

Global crisis - departures growth decomposition comparison

SWOT: Mozambique

Recommendations - Mozambique

Tajikistan

Geographic location

Macro environment

Trade partners

Investments in gold and silver deposits may help boost FDI

High dependency on air travel

International air connectivity - heavily skewed to intra-regional

Local players lead - potential to code-share with Somon or S7

Highly dependent on Russian routes

Moderate tourism market, dominated by outbound air

Drivers of inbound demand

Tourism demand forecast scenarios

S cenario impact in numbers

Measuring the scenario impact vs 2020 baseline

EM slowdown scenario: Small inbound market, exposed to volatility

EM slowdown scenario: Impact by country of origin

EM slowdown scenario: Departures key priority and worst affected

Outbound demand drivers - sensitive to GDP and exchange rates

EM slowdown scenario: Moderate resilience to EM slowdown

EM slowdown scenario: Forecast decline for outbound Russia

SWOT: Tajikistan

Recommendations - Tajikistan

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