Alcoholic Drinks Quarterly Statement Q3 2016

Revisions For Alcoholic drinks are minor but point downwards

While Euromonitor’s baseline growth projections are proving remarkably accurate, minor downgrades in expectations are becoming inevitable with macro headwinds hitting oil-producing nations, exchange rate volatility and “black swan” events such as Brexit taking their toll.

Lager taking the biggest hit in volume terms

Lager, accounting for the majority of beer volumes, takes the greatest hit. However, premium lager is proving far more resilient, demonstrating the potential for cushioning against macro shocks with products positioned within the premium segment.

Brazilian blues weigh heavily on global figures

Brazil is proving to be one of the greatest disappointments and downgrades, dragging down regional and global growth expectations with it. With health risks, political limbo, oil prices languishing and socioeconomic upheaval on the horizon, the short term looks set for further downgrades.

The spectre of Brexit haunts Western European prospects and beyond

While Brexit has already provided a shock in the UK and Western Europe, further ripple effects are expected until the process is finalised. A discussion involving the reimplementation of tariffs and trade barriers, a rise of nationalistic voices favouring protectionist measures and favouring local industries at the expense of imported products could lead to interesting developments in drinking habits, production, logistics and M&As.