Alcoholic Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q3 2020

September 2020

This briefing provides updates on 2018-2023 quarterly forecasts for the soft drinks industry, sourced from Euromonitor International’s Soft Drinks Forecast Model for Q3 2019

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Euromonitor’s analysis proves correct, risks skewed on the downside

From the immediate yet expanding lockdowns dealing a catastrophic blow to on-trade sales to the ever-deepening ripple effects on the real economy in the mid term and the ultimate seismic long-term shifts in drinking rituals and occasions, the crisis will radically reshape the alcoholic drinks industry.

Recovery will be painful, protracted and gradual

While a bounce back should begin by 2021 - as per Euromonitor’s baseline scenario - the apocalyptic state of the on-trade and permanent closures of bars, breweries and distilleries will be the basis of a new operating landscape. The emergence of cure or a vaccine will open the doors for a sustainable return of the on-trade, otherwise volatility will remain a huge challenge in the short term.

Hints of intoxicating optimism amidst the gloom

Initial suggestions and expectations regarding a V-shaped industry recovery are already proving to be over-optimistic since the disruption is only expanding further geographically and in terms of timelines. However, there are segments that are securing exceptionally strong growth rates , even in the context of such a bleak operating environment; RTDs, spearheaded by hard seltzer - are witnessing an explosive performance while online sales are skyrocketing.

A shift from the physical to the virtual

While initiatives embracing virtual tours or tastings, the, admittedly hesitant, rise of hometainment and the slow but steady rise in penetration rates for online and mobile sales of alcoholic drinks were all there before the crisis, circumstances have brought them to the forefront. They will provide the platform needed to maintain equity and a sense of community in the months ahead.


Euromonitor International and Coronavirus: Forecasts and analysis
Alcoholic Drinks COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
Key findings
Global economy will contract sharply in 2020
In our baseline view, the pandemic slows in the second half of 2020
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
Falling off a cliff and the prolonged ascend to a “New Normal”
The timeline of drinking in a post-pandemic world
Waiting for a bounce back: from optimism to pragmatism
Off-trade, silver linings and bright spots in the gloom
Channel disruptions make for a bitter cocktail
Routes to disruption in Alcoholic Drinks
Soft drivers: how we quantify these COVID-19-specific effects in the IFM
Deciphering soft drivers for hard times ahead
Whiskies: when aspiration becomes a downside risk
D2C; from niche disruptors to last defence
Premiumisation : evolution essential for survival
Blurring lines and effervescent hard seltzers
About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for the Industry Forecast Model

Alcoholic Drinks

Alcoholic drinks is the aggregation of beer, wine, spirits, cider/perry and RTDs.

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