This briefing examines Euromonitor International’s Q3 2021 alcoholic drinks forecasts, which have been updated in accordance with new macroeconomic data and the latest information. The top line forecast has been revised upwards slightly this quarter compared to the baseline projection, supported by an improved outlook in Brazil. The path to recovery remains uneven, with expectations in other key markets downgraded, amid new virus outbreaks and government restrictions.
Euromonitor International’s latest top line alcoholic drinks forecast has been revised upwards slightly for 2022 onwards in the latest quarterly update compared to the baseline published in May 2021. There has, however, been virtually no change to projected total volume growth for 2021, which remains at 2%. A gradual recovery from 2021 is expected to result in total volumes returning to 2019 levels by 2023.
A number of key markets have seen notable downgrades this quarter, illustrating the uneven nature of the path to recovery. Reasons for revised forecasts include much of Southeast Asia battling severe virus outbreaks, the introduction of another alcohol ban in South Africa, stringent lockdowns in Australia, and the devastating impacts of the second wave (and potentially the upcoming third wave) of COVID-19 in India.
On the other hand, some forecasts have been revised upwards. Brazil is the most significant example. An accelerating vaccine roll-out is fuelling improved prospects in Brazil from 2021 onwards, following an already resilient alcoholic drinks performance (largely through beer) in 2020.
The timing of the on-trade recovery is a key question for the industry. Hospitality remains at the centre of many new or extended government restrictions. Lasting changes in consumer habits are expected to drive more varied socialising patterns, with home consumption cementing its place as a key theme within alcoholic drinks. However, there are early indications of a surge in demand following on-trade re-opening, driven by consumers’ desire to reconnect and return to out-of-home experiences.
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