Alcoholic Drinks: Quarterly Statement Q4 2020

December 2020

This briefing provides updates on Euromonitor’s December 2020 forecast restatement for the Alcohol Industry, deciphering how the industry is navigating the pandemic , changes from baseline projections and highlighting future risks and opportunities.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Reiterating our forecast projections, risks skewed on the downside

rolling lockdowns continuing to weight heavily on the collapsing on-trade and retail and online providing only a partial respite , Euromonitor international largely retains its baseline projections for only a gradual recovery in 2021 . Additionally, hand, clinical data on the efficacy of vaccines , the arrival of rapid testing and the potential for therapeutics brings the end of the health crisis finally in sight.  With

More pain to come but recovery finally on the horizon

While a bounce back should begin by 2021 - as per Euromonitor’s baseline scenario - the apocalyptic state of the on-trade and permanent closures of bars, breweries and distilleries will be the basis of a new, leaner operating landscape. Furthermore, while history does not repeat itself, it does rhyme and the premiumization mantra will inevitably be questioned and be under severe pressure as the ripple effects of an economic crisis will follow up the ending of the health crisis.

Hints of intoxicating optimism amidst the gloom

Initial suggestions and expectations regarding a V-shaped industry recovery are already proving to be over-optimistic since the disruption is only expanding further geographically and in terms of timelines. However, there are segments that continue securing exceptionally strong growth rates , even in the context of such a bleak operating environment; RTDs, spearheaded by hard seltzer - are witnessing an explosive performance while online sales are skyrocketing. Wine appears to be also capitalise on the new drinking rituals and occasions.

Deciphering anomalies in the pattern and polishing our projections

   While Euromonitor’s overall global growth trajectories were only minimally tweaked– subject to a refresh on the back of the upcoming new edition- a small number of Eastern European and Nordic markets were revisited in order for us to capture their booming off-trade performance. Radically changing daily routines, the rise of home as both a work and entertainment hub , extra disposable incomes and curtailed cross border sales have all led to a spike in off trade sales.

Euromonitor International and Coronavirus: forecasts and analysis
Alcoholic Drinks COVID-19 data and reporting timeline
Key findings
Summer was more optimistic, but the pandemic starts the second wave
In our baseline view, economies start rebounding in 2021
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios
V for Victory? ‘Nike swoosh’ recovery takes hold
Last orders for the on-trade? downside risks and a counterargument
Off-trade comes to the rescue but volatility remains
US: off trade – deciphering the segment’s intoxicating resilience
History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes
Recessionary casualties: revisiting the great recession
Sobering comparisons and silver linings
COVID-19 turned premiumisation into mid-tier erosion
In the US domestic whiskies perform strongly during the pandemic
Russia and Sweden: going back home
Soft drivers: how we quantify these COVID-19-specific effects in the IFM
Wine: turning crisis into an opportunity ?
About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for the Industry Forecast Model

Alcoholic Drinks

Alcoholic drinks is the aggregation of beer, wine, spirits, cider/perry and RTDs.

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