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Introducing Euromonitor International’s Brexit Scenarios Tool and Quarterly Report

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The Brexit Scenarios Tool is a new interactive market intelligence dashboard available on our website and Passport’s Analytics page. Our new Quarterly Brexit Report is a partner piece to the tool, which will provide the analysis behind the numbers each quarter, helping clients to stay informed with the Brexit process as it unfolds. Understanding the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our baseline forecasts for the UK economy, industries and consumers will enable you to be prepared for a range of outcomes, providing the tools to stress-test strategy, plan ahead and remain profitable in these challenging times.

Benefits of the Brexit Scenarios Tool

The Brexit Scenarios Tool is a powerful way to access and explore the economic, industry and consumer implications of Brexit for the UK, helping businesses navigate the extremely high level of uncertainty at this present time. The tool brings together as many as 10 different dashboards on Passport into a single application, and aims to provide an immediate interpretation of the consequences of our Brexit scenarios:

  • Explore a range of possible Brexit scenarios;
  • Understand the impact of each scenario on the UK economy, industries and consumers;
  • Access monthly and quarterly UK macroeconomic data in a single, easy-to-use location;
  • Spot early warning signs about upcoming economic changes by tracking the latest positive and negative shifts in key macroeconomic indicators;
  • Follow key events and leverage the latest economic data in analysis;
  • Quickly drill down to the most important trends facing the UK during the Brexit process.

How to pull insights from the Brexit Scenarios Tool

The Scenarios tab provides an overview of our baseline Brexit forecasts and pre-defined scenarios, focusing on the possible future relationship of the UK with the European Union (EU). Upon choosing the scenario of interest, all charts update to show the impact on the UK economy, industries and consumers. For example, in a “No Deal Brexit” scenario:

  1. The economy chart shows the potential negative impact on the UK economy in terms of real GDP growth;
  2. The industries chart shows how many percentage points the No-Deal Brexit scenario would shave off the baseline growth in selected consumer industries;
  3. The disposable income chart shows how a No-Deal Brexit would slow the expansion of the richest social classes in the UK and simultaneously lead to growth of the lower-earning social classes.

Switch to the Latest Data tab to see the most recent monthly and quarterly macroeconomic indicators to stay informed about how the UK economy is doing as the Brexit process unfolds:

  1. The green and red arrows indicate data changes from the previous period, and help understand the dynamics behind the numbers. For instance, a decline in wage per hour and deteriorating consumer confidence, projects a slowdown of private consumption growth in the near future;
  2. Examine the entire time series for each indicator, switch between monthly and quarterly data, add seasonal adjustment and customise the charts.

New Quarterly Brexit Report

UK businesses and consumers are grappling with uncertainty about what the future holds when the UK is due to leave the EU in March 2019. The report enables clients to stay on top of the latest Brexit developments and to understand how Euromonitor’s Brexit scenarios are changing.

Euromonitor’s baseline scenario already incorporates the likelihood (35-45% probability) of a Delayed Free Trade Agreement, where the UK remains in the EU for another two to three years until a deal is reached. The quarterly report examines the impact of a No-Deal Brexit scenario (30-40% probability) on our baseline, alongside the much slimmer prospect of a Light Brexit (5-15% probability).

Did you know?

  • Euromonitor International expects real GDP growth in 2019 to increase to 2.3% in the event of a Light Brexit in 2019 as economic growth improves amid continuation of passporting rights for the financial sector and on ongoing access to the single market. This would be the country’s best annual economic growth since 2014;
  • One industry that would benefit from a No-Deal Brexit would be inbound tourism as the currency devaluation makes the UK more attractive to tourists from the USA and Europe;
  • However, the impact of leaving the EU with no deal in place in 2019 would harm economic growth, especially for the City of London, home to the lucrative financial sector. In this scenario, Euromonitor predicts growth of London’s bottom consumer segment with nearly 60,000 more households with a disposable income of less than US$45,000 in 2019 from a year earlier.

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