Navy strength: Overproof allure
While lower abv offerings and nascent health and wellness trends have largely monopolised the debate within the alcoholic drinks industry over the past couple of years, 2013 will see irreverently potent brands and extensions providing the base for fiery cocktails and debates alike. Already revered in mixologist circles while distinctly nodding to iconic and idealised pre-prohibition authenticity, higher abv gin and whiskey will provide edginess and mystique to the premiumisation mantra.
Scotched Earth: First it takes the Highlands, then it takes Beijing
Scotch production capacity will continue booming at the same time that, once mothballed, distilleries go into overdrive to keep up with emerging markets’ seemingly insatiable thirst for the tipple. From the signing of free-trade agreements to the opening of luxury flagship stores and from scarcity-driven limited editions to bespoke offerings, premium varietals will lead the race. A largely controversial approach underlining the story, flavour profile and colour will shift the focus away from once totemic age statements. Meanwhile, the Scotch industry’s enviable earnings will have to face fresh calls for minimum pricing, still lingering protectionist measures and the probability of the introduction of taxation in its native - soon potentially independent - country of origin.
Mezcal steps into the limelight
Minute in relative size, artisanal in nature almost by definition and boasting a yet undiscovered plethora of expressions and small batch offerings, mezcal is perfectly positioned to capitalise on the blossoming micro trend and the advancing craft revolution. If hipster hotspots in London and New York are to provide any indication, 2013 will be the year that mezcal will eclipse tequila’s omnipresence and enter the mainstream. A celebration of Mexican arts, culture, heritage and cuisine will mark the category’s transition from reserved adolescence to ostentatious adulthood.
Rye, white, experimental and alternative: Beyond Scotch
While Scotch and corn-based bourbon will retain their momentum, American rye varietals, niche, tradition-infused and risqué white whiskey ventures, and unlikely places of origin ranging from France to Sweden, will hold the proverbial angel’s share in terms of dynamism and experimentation. Micro distillers will, as ever, pioneer and experiment with everything from ingredients to wood finish and ageing methods until the trend gathers enough momentum to enter the mainstream. It soon will.
Vodka and the finite nature of flavour sophistication
While the vodka-surfing wave of flavours has already spilled over adjacent spirits categories, the famed neutral spirit itself is already drowning in a sea of saccharine and outrageous incarnations. 2013 will retain the focus on higher-end offerings but the overflowing innovation pipeline will have to be addressed. Heritage and tradition references on the back of a fresh focus on new and emerging markets will have to come to the fore sooner rather than later and before the entire category transcends into glorified alcopop territory.
Rum: Golden Brown
Rum’s mixability and versatile nature has been a major vehicle for the category’s growth over the past decade. The recent spate of spiced extensions will retain their momentum but the time to leave the mixers aside is fast approaching. Aged, dark and golden varietals will push the drinking ritual in new directions, while premiumisation will bring signature expressions and rum’s rich history under the spotlight. In summary: A natural – and marketing driven – progression from rum and coke to rum on the rocks.
Gin: Clash of the botanicals
While mainstream, major gin brands will continue haemorrhaging sales in their key, recession-ravaged markets, small batch offerings will mischievously continue recruiting younger and more adventurous drinkers in search of a convincing narrative. Victoriana references will provide the setting for the category’s decidedly quirky persona at the same time that juniper will move to the back in favour of alternative, seasonal or region-specific botanicals and long lost recipes. Not all overambitious boutique startups will survive but they will leave their mark in the evolving category regardless.
Liqueurs: The end of hibernation
Liqueurs are waking up from their decade long slumber. Capitalising on the renewed interest in ‘mixology essentials’, premium offerings will leverage their superior ingredients and traditional credentials to cement growth. Iconic bitters like Jägermeister and Aperol will be joined by fresh, little known regional specialties that will become synonymous with sophistication and exoticism overnight. Rebranding exercises will also gain traction at the same time that obviously counterproductive, female-focused campaigns will subside in favour of a more gender-neutral, ironic and postmodern positioning.
Other spirits: Significant other
Localisation, the rising focus on traditional credentials and a resurgence in nostalgia-inspired brands will continue highlighting the rising interest in all things retro. Absinthe’s irreverent backstory, bohemian associations and rich historical references make the category a perfect fit for capitalising on the nascent but rapidly accelerating retro trend.
Meanwhile, emerging nations are becoming more important on the realigning global economic stage, and their local specialties will also see increased interest from jaded westerners eager to experiment with more “exotic” products. From obscure, unpronounceable spirits to cachaça and from pisco to baiju, the flow of drinking trends, fads and launches will rapidly shift away from the one directional developed-to-emerging markets model of past decades to become an increasingly interactive affair.