The current state of the tobacco industry is changing. Global cigarette sales are in decline and a new "nicotine industry" is emerging with e-cigarettes and vapour products increasing in popularity. Euromonitor International’s data shows that the cigarettes market will record a US$7.7 billion loss by 2021, compensated by the US$13.2 billion growth in heated tobacco products sales in the same period.
Shane MacGuill, head of tobacco research at Euromonitor International comments: “The continued growth in vapour products and the emergence of heated tobacco represent the major element of disruption for the tobacco industry. We believe that heated tobacco will gain a solid presence in at least 35 global markets by 2021, accounting for a share of 3.5 percent of total global cigarettes and heated tobacco value. Heated tobacco prospects are strong and strengthening. On this evidence, it is a truly a coming force in global tobacco.”
According to Euromonitor International, in 2016:
- Global sales of heated tobacco products recorded more than USD 2 billion, with 171% growth in comparison to 2015
- Japan was the largest heated tobacco market, accounting for a share of 96 percent of heated tobacco products global sales
- Nine of the top 10 countries for heated tobacco sales are based in Europe, representing the fastest growing region in the world (+634% in Western Europe, +327% in Eastern Europe)
- Germany was the second largest heated tobacco market but the USA will take its place by 2021
- The third and fourth largest markets for heated tobacco products were Switzerland and Portugal respectively, which were also amongst the fastest growing markets
- The UK represented the fastest growing market with 467% growth compared to 2015
Top 10 Heated Tobacco Markets
| Geography | Market size at retail in 2016 (USD million) |
| Japan | 1,911.3 |
| Germany | 11.4 |
| Portugal | 7.9 |
| Switzerland | 5.8 |
| Denmark | 3.6 |
| Romania | 2.9 |
| Russia | 2.6 |
| France | 1.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1.4 |
| Ukraine | 1.2 |
source: Euromonitor International
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