While the probability of a Trump election scenario is relatively low, the candidate’s aggressive and protectionist rhetoric would actually translate into additional volatility and headwinds for growth in all categories – not merely on a US level but globally.
Geopolitical tensions flaring up alongside a rise in nationalistic rhetoric- forces that we have also seen unleashed in the case of the Brexit vote and its still on-going tremors- will lead to a renewed bout of macro volatility pushing global alcoholic drinks growth lower than initial estimates. On the other hand, such an inward shift of the US electorate could signal a further interest in locally produced brands while the nature of such an anti-establishment vote could also be translated as another sign of opting for radical alternatives. Localisation and anti-status quo rhetoric and positioning are incidentally two of the key drivers behind the rise of micro brewers and micro distillers.
