Baked Goods in Asia Pacific

April 2021

China saw its sales of baked goods negatively affected by disruptions to production and distribution as well as consumers’ limited access to retail outlets due to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020, with the Asia Pacific region as a whole therefore seeing a similar slowdown in its growth rate. A swift recovery is expected from 2021, with positive growth rates predicted throughout the forecast period in real value terms.

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Key findings

Strong historic period sales

Sales of baked goods were seeing healthy growth in most of the region’s countries over the 2015-2020 period, with China in particular helping to drive the overall Asia Pacific performance. Japan was an exception to this, with baked goods in this country hit by extremely hot weather, rising costs and lack of exposure to bread among schoolchildren, with this product, formerly a popular staple for school lunches in Japan, increasingly being replaced by rice-based lunches.

Slowdown in growth due to COVID-19 in 2020

China saw a sharp slowdown in its baked goods sales growth in 2020 as the pandemic hit the country, affecting production, logistics, supply and distribution of baked goods in the country. Another general trend across much of the region in 2020 was consumers switching from unpackaged to packaged products due to hygiene concerns about the former.

Positive outlook for HW products

Rising consumer health-consciousness and increasing interest in nutrition were already exerting a growing influence on demand in baked goods prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and this trend is set to continue over the forecast period. However, with the economic impact of measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 having significantly undermined consumer confidence and spending power, manufacturers’ efforts to target the rise in consumer health-consciousness will need to be balanced with the increase in price sensitivity among some consumers.

More strong growth expected over the forecast period

China will see strong growth in 2021, helping baked goods to see an impressive annual sales increase in Asia Pacific as a whole in this year. Further positive growth is expected over the rest of the forecast period, with the increasingly hectic character of modern urban living driving demand for convenient food options such as baked goods, which are well-suited to snacking.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Regional Overview

Asia Pacific records the strongest growth over 2015-2020
Asia Pacific expected to bounce back with strong growth in 2021
Cakes and pastries have greater sales than bread in Asia Pacific
Pastries and cakes in China the main growth drivers
Pastries add the most new growth over 2015-2020
Strong growth in much of the region in 2015-2020
Food/drink/tobacco specialists the main sales channel
E-commerce continues gaining share in 2020, particularly in China

Leading Companies and Brands

Baked goods a fragmented product area
Dynamic growth for Shenyang Toly Bread over 2015-2020
Japan the main market for the bulk of the top 10 players
Toly improves its position through expansion and innovation

Forecast Projections

Strong rebound expected in 2021…
…followed by more positive growth in the rest of the forecast period
Rising incomes and expanding populations will help drive growth

Country Snapshots

China: Market Context
China: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Hong Kong, China: Market Context
Hong Kong, China: Competitive and Retail Landscape
India: Market Context
India: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Indonesia: Market Context
Indonesia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Japan: Market Context
Japan: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Malaysia: Market Context
Malaysia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Pakistan: Market Context
Pakistan: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Philippines: Market Context
Philippines: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Singapore: Market Context
Singapore: Competitive and Retail Landscape
South Korea: Market Context
South Korea: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Taiwan: Market Context
Taiwan: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Thailand: Market Context
Thailand: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Vietnam: Market Context
Vietnam: Competitive and Retail Landscape
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