Baked Goods in Eastern Europe

April 2021

Sales of baked goods in Eastern Europe recorded slightly slower real value growth in 2020 than a year earlier. Although the arrival of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the region saw consumers stockpiling certain products, this did not extend to bread in the region’s biggest market of Russia, due to the short shelf life of this product, with unpackaged baked goods also hit by hygiene concerns. Stagnating or very modest annual growth rates are expected in the region from 2021.

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Key findings

Growth peaks in 2019

With most national economies growing in the region and many markets also increasingly seeing sales of higher-priced healthy baked goods (eg wholegrain, multigrain, rye, spelt), 2019 saw annual growth peak at almost 3% in real value terms in 2019.

Sales momentum slows in 2020 due to the pandemic

Although baked goods recorded stronger growth in some Eastern European countries in 2020, with consumers prioritising staples during the pandemic, sales in Russia declined in this year, with COVID-19 having a negative impact on leavened bread, due to its short shelf life, leading to a lack of consumer stockpiling that had been seen with other staples. In addition, there were hygiene concerns with unpackaged baked goods, which still lead sales, especially in leavened bread. Furthermore, with consumers spending more time at home during lockdowns, there was a greater prevalence of home-cooking, along with an uptick in consumers baking their own bread.

COVID-19 drives sales of frozen and packaged products

Packaged baked goods were benefitting from the pandemic, as were frozen baked goods and mixed desserts. Although the latter two categories are still relatively small product areas, mixed desserts recorded growth thanks to increased levels of home-baking, while frozen products were convenient for stockpiling at home, being conveniently to hand as and when needed.

Muted growth expected from 2021

Baked goods is expected to see only modest annual growth in real value terms in the region in the post-2020 period, with bread, pastries and cakes expected to be in decline in Russia for much of the forecast period. Unpackaged products will continue to underperform their packaged counterparts, while HW products will be among the more dynamic categories, along with frozen baked goods.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Regional Overview

Eastern Europe with below-average sales growth over 2015-2020
Slow growth expected over the forecast period
Romania and Poland add the most new retail value in 2015-2020
HW bread driving the additional value in Romania and the Czech Republic
Bread adds the most new sales despite its modest CAGR in 2015-2020
Baked goods performances slow in many countries in 2020
Supermarkets still the main retail distribution channel
Modern grocery retailers continue to gain share

Leading Companies and Brands

Fragmented baked goods is dominated by players under “others”
Agrofert moves up the rankings after its United Bakeries takeover
Chipita has the widest presence across Eastern European baked goods
Private label gains share in 2020 due to COVID-19’s economic impact

Forecast Projections

Modest growth rates expected from 2021
HW bread will help drive the baked goods performance in 2020-2025
Strong price growth expected in Bulgaria and Hungary

Country Snapshots

Belarus: Market Context
Belarus: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Market Context
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Bulgaria: Market Context
Bulgaria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Croatia: Market Context
Croatia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Czech Republic: Market Context
Czech Republic: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Estonia: Market Context
Estonia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Georgia: Market Context
Georgia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Hungary: Market Context
Hungary: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Latvia: Market Context
Latvia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Lithuania: Market Context
Lithuania: Competitive and Retail Landscape
North Macedonia: Market Context
North Macedonia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Poland: Market Context
Poland: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Romania: Market Context
Romania: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Russia: Market Context
Russia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Serbia: Market Context
Serbia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Slovakia: Market Context
Slovakia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Slovenia: Market Context
Slovenia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Ukraine: Market Context
Ukraine: Competitive and Retail Landscape
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