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Baked Goods in Middle East and Africa

April 2021

As a staple product, bread continued to grow in the Middle East and Africa region in 2020, in spite of the presence of Coronavirus (COVID-19), ensuring a positive performance by baked goods as a whole. In some countries, bread is a subsidised product, so that the economic impact of the pandemic has not suppressed sales, even if this can act as a drag on value growth. Further growth is expected across the whole of baked goods over the forecast period.

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Key findings

Bread is a staple across Middle East and Africa

Bread is a staple across much of Middle East and Africa, including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, often eaten with at least one of the main meals of the day. In Saudi Arabia, the region’s biggest market, baked goods are one of the most prominent offerings in the packaged food industry, with bread and pastries being consumed daily. The consumption of bread is part of Moroccan culture and tends to be eaten daily with all meals. Pastries are also often consumed at breakfast time, served to welcome guests when they visit or during religious holidays in Morocco.

Many governments subsidise bread prices

Governments in a number of countries in Middle East and Africa subsidise or cap the price of bread to ensure that it remains affordable for all consumers. However, one country was going in a different direction, with Saudi Arabia introducing a steep increase in VAT in summer 2020, helping boost the attraction of cheaper products such as private label lines.

HW driving new product development

There is a burgeoning HW trend across the region, with consumers in Saudi Arabia, for example, increasingly choosing wholewheat bread over white flour products. In Algeria, its healthy historic period CAGR was partly due to the launch of new HW products, such as organic and gluten-free bread, helping to drive value growth rates. In addition to new products appearing, the rapid expansion of organic stores – such as La Vie Claire in big cities in Morocco – is also increasing consumers’ access to healthier products.

Baked goods to continue growing in 2020-2025

As a staple in many countries, bread will continue to record positive growth in the region over the forecast period. Rising populations, increasing urbanisation and the continued expansion of modern grocery retailers – although small bakeries will also remain popular across the region – will help to drive growth.

 

Introduction

Scope

introduction

Key findings

Regional Overview

Middle East and Africa with above-average 2015-2020 growth
Continued growth expected to be seen in baked goods over 2020-2025
Saudi Arabia and Egypt add the most new sales over 2015-2020
Bread sales normalising in Nigeria after its earlier declines
Bread the main motor behind 2015-2020 baked goods growth
As a key staple, bread sales hold up well in most countries
Traditional grocery retailers dominate sales in African countries…
…but modern grocery retailers tend to lead in Middle East markets

Leading Companies and Brands

Artisanal players dominate baked goods in Middle East and Africa
Almarai remains the leading player in regional baked goods
Many top 10 players only operate in a single country
Assylor continues its climb up the rankings

Forecast Projections

Saudi Arabia and Morocco to add the most new sales in 2020-2025
Positive growth rates expected throughout the forecast period
Rising populations will be driving baked goods growth

Country Snapshots

Algeria: Market Context
Algeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Cameroon: Market Context
Cameroon: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Egypt: Market Context
Egypt: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Israel: Market Context
Israel: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Kenya: Market Context
Kenya: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Morocco: Market Context
Morocco: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Nigeria: Market Context
Nigeria: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Saudi Arabia: Market Context
Saudi Arabia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
South Africa: Market Context
South Africa: Competitive and Retail Landscape
Tunisia: Market Context
Tunisia: Competitive and Retail Landscape
United Arab Emirates: Market Context
United Arab Emirates: Competitive and Retail Landscape
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