As something of a mature category, baked goods were seeing slow or even declining real value growth year on year of late in Western Europe. However, due to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the region, a certain amount of foodservice consumption was moving into people’s homes and consumers were also resorting to familiar basic products, such as bread, during lockdowns, helping drive sales during 2020. Baked goods will then see more muted annual growth rates over the rest of the forecast period.
Baked goods had already turned round its performances in 2019, when it registered positive growth, following the falling sales seen in 2017 and 2018, when Spain and Turkey were recording significant sales declines. The arrival in Western Europe of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in additional impetus for retail sales of baked goods in this year. Some foodservice consumption was moving into people’s homes, while bread was seen as an important staple during the difficult times most countries were experiencing.
The pandemic has only served to make health and wellness even more important for consumers in Western Europe. This will see the range of reduced-fat/-sugar, natural, organic or free from products continue expanding, with consumers reacting favourably to such innovations, as seen in the much stronger expected CAGRs for HW baked goods than their non-HW equivalents over 2020-2025.
Store-based retailing dominates Western European baked goods sales, with many countries having a major presence of artisanal bakeries that consumers visit daily to buy their baked goods. Modern grocery retailers are an increasing threat to such specialists, with bake-off products and private label lines eating into the artisanal share. Despite a boom in e-commerce sales in 2020, internet retailing still remains a relatively minor competitor among the retail distribution channels.
Although baked goods is expected to record positive growth rates over the forecast period, they will generally be very modest ones at a regional level. Turkey will see major losses in real value sales of unpackaged leavened bread, partly as a result of falling real prices, with this negatively impacting the overall region’s performance in 2020-2025.
In packaged food we consider two aspects of food sales: 1) Retail sales. 2) Foodservice. Retail sales is defined as sales through establishments primarily engaged in the sale of fresh, packaged and prepared foods for home preparation and consumption. This excludes hotels, restaurant, cafés, duty free sales and institutional sales (canteens, prisons/jails, hospitals, army, etc). Our retail definition EXCLUDES the purchase of food products from foodservice outlets for consumption off-premises, eg impulse confectionery bought from counters of cafés/bars. This falls under foodservice sales. For foodservice, we capture all sales to foodservice outlets, regardless of whether the products are eventually consumed on-premise or off-premise. Foodservice sales is defined as sales to consumer foodservice outlets that serve the general public in a non-captive environment. Outlets include cafés/bars, FSR (full-service restaurants), fast food, 100% home delivery/takeaway, self-service cafeterias and street stalls/kiosks. Sales to semicaptive foodservice outlets are also included. This describes outlets located in leisure, travel and retail environments. 1) Retail refers to units located in retail outlets such as department stores, shopping malls, shopping centres, super/hypermarkets etc. 2) Leisure refers to units located in leisure establishments such as museums, health clubs, cinemas, theatres, theme parks and sports stadiums. 3) Travel refers to units located in based in airports, rail stations, coach stations, motorway service stations offering gas facilities etc. Beyond the scope of the foodservice research are captive foodservice units that serve captive populations around institutions such as hospitals, schools, and prisons. This is also known as institutional sales.
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