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Strategy Briefing

Baked Goods in Western Europe

66 pages, Jan 2019

US$1,325

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About This Report

New Report Guarantee

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition and data extract FREE!

After a review period in decline, baked goods in Western Europe may be about to witness a turnaround already active in the UK, with the Nordic countries likely to follow next. Southern Europe’s consumers continues to reduce carbohydrate intake in general and baked goods intake in particular and increasingly prefer moderate consumption or gluten-free products. Growth is forecast to be strongest in niche products, thus even in markets set to decline, there are pockets of growth.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Key findings

Southern Europe’s consumers reducing nutritional reliance on bread

Southern Europe’s bread market is in decline due to the negative perception of bread. Consumers in Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey all see links between high bread intake, poor digestion and weight gain.

Northern European consumers may be about to turn back to bread

Not long ago, Northern European consumers too turned away from bread for much the same reasons. Now there may be a rebound on the horizon as the UK and the Nordic markets are benefiting from rising interest in craft-style baked goods. Additionally, gluten-free diets are criticised for increasing diabetes and cancer risk in Danish, Norwegian, Finnish and Swedish media.

Demand for cakes and pastries set to continue and become more indulgent

Cakes and pastries outpaced bread in value terms over the review period across Western Europe. The trend is set to develop using ideas from chocolate confectionery, positioning around new consumption occasions and casual snacking. Meanwhile, cake manufacturers should consider competition from snack bars and sweet biscuits.

Unpackaged bread bake-off has allowed retailers to strengthen private label sales

Ready-to-bake dough pieces prepared industrially for baking in store ovens has been a successful high-margin concept during the review period, especially in markets where packaged baked goods is larger than unpackaged. This has allowed retailers to strengthen their position in private label negotiations with bakeries but is now set to mature over the forecast period.

Craft baking - a powerful UK trend ripe for testing in other markets

Craft baking is a growing opportunity for artisanal outlets in the UK to monetise the indulgence trend, for packaged bread to grow through the use of gut health- positioned sourdough and for home bakers to learn to appreciate baked goods. Western Europe can look to the example of the UK for forecast period ideas.

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Introduction

Scope

Key findings

Regional Overview

Western Europe is the world’s largest but fastest declining market

Weakening bread avoidance in northern Europe boosts regional forecast

Bread dominates baked goods, Germany leads in frozen baked goods

Health related decline in Spain, successful repositioning in Austria

Health trends led to decline in bread, while pastries and cakes sales grew

Decline in bread, strong development in pastries and cakes

G rowth in hand-sized pastries and cakes in much of the region

Food/drink/tobacco specialists lost sales to modern grocery retailing

Distribution: modern grocery retailing and internet retailing winning

Leading Companies and Brands

Fragmented region with strong unpackaged sales and many local players

Bake-off development in unpackaged bread slowing down

Developing niche products may be a way out of decline for companies

Western European baked goods players mainly stay local or regional

Minimal competition between top 10 baked goods brands

Forecast Projections

UK to lead baked goods towards forecast period growth

Western European consumers may be turning back to baked goods

Spain and Turkey set to prevent regional forecast period growth

Competition a major driver for bread decline in Spain

Country Snapshots

Italy: market context

Italy: competitive and retail landscape

Germany: market context

Germany: competitive and retail landscape

France: market context

France: competitive and retail landscape

Turkey: market context

Turkey: competitive and retail landscape

UK: market context

UK: competitive and retail landscape

Spain: market context

Spain: competitive and retail landscape

Austria: market context

Austria: competitive and retail landscape

Netherlands: market context

Netherlands: competitive and retail landscape

Belgium: market context

Belgium: competitive and retail landscape

Switzerland: market context

Switzerland: competitive and retail landscape

Greece: market context

Greece: competitive and retail landscape

Sweden: market context

Sweden: competitive and retail landscape

Denmark: market context

Denmark: competitive and retail landscape

Finland: market context

Finland: competitive and retail landscape

Norway: market context

Norway: competitive and retail landscape

Portugal: market context

Portugal: competitive and retail landscape

Ireland: market context

Ireland: competitive and retail landscape

Appendix: Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Industry Forecast Model

Why buy this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Baked Goods in Western Europe

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Key findings

Southern Europe’s consumers reducing nutritional reliance on bread

Northern European consumers may be about to turn back to bread

Demand for cakes and pastries set to continue and become more indulgent

Unpackaged bread bake-off has allowed retailers to strengthen private label sales

Craft baking - a powerful UK trend ripe for testing in other markets

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Key findings

Regional Overview

Western Europe is the world’s largest but fastest declining market

Weakening bread avoidance in northern Europe boosts regional forecast

Bread dominates baked goods, Germany leads in frozen baked goods

Health related decline in Spain, successful repositioning in Austria

Health trends led to decline in bread, while pastries and cakes sales grew

Decline in bread, strong development in pastries and cakes

G rowth in hand-sized pastries and cakes in much of the region

Food/drink/tobacco specialists lost sales to modern grocery retailing

Distribution: modern grocery retailing and internet retailing winning

Leading Companies and Brands

Fragmented region with strong unpackaged sales and many local players

Bake-off development in unpackaged bread slowing down

Developing niche products may be a way out of decline for companies

Western European baked goods players mainly stay local or regional

Minimal competition between top 10 baked goods brands

Forecast Projections

UK to lead baked goods towards forecast period growth

Western European consumers may be turning back to baked goods

Spain and Turkey set to prevent regional forecast period growth

Competition a major driver for bread decline in Spain

Country Snapshots

Italy: market context

Italy: competitive and retail landscape

Germany: market context

Germany: competitive and retail landscape

France: market context

France: competitive and retail landscape

Turkey: market context

Turkey: competitive and retail landscape

UK: market context

UK: competitive and retail landscape

Spain: market context

Spain: competitive and retail landscape

Austria: market context

Austria: competitive and retail landscape

Netherlands: market context

Netherlands: competitive and retail landscape

Belgium: market context

Belgium: competitive and retail landscape

Switzerland: market context

Switzerland: competitive and retail landscape

Greece: market context

Greece: competitive and retail landscape

Sweden: market context

Sweden: competitive and retail landscape

Denmark: market context

Denmark: competitive and retail landscape

Finland: market context

Finland: competitive and retail landscape

Norway: market context

Norway: competitive and retail landscape

Portugal: market context

Portugal: competitive and retail landscape

Ireland: market context

Ireland: competitive and retail landscape

Appendix: Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition