The Forecast Model’s Q1 2017 update cuts industry growth over 2015-2020 by US$5 billion, when compared to the Passport Baseline. Consumers are spending more rationally, and no longer equate high price with high value. With a cluttered marketplace, the competitive forces are harsher. However, newer market entrants continue to post robust sales reaped through novel product experiences. Legacy brands need to scrutinise the success drivers of smaller rivals, and reinvent their offer to compete.
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The beauty and personal care industry experienced a further downgrade in Q1 2017, with the forecast CAGR over 2015-2020 now standing at 2.7%, down by 0.2 percentage points, as absolute gains were slashed by US$5 billion. This scenario results from uncertainty in core markets, namely the US and UK, and previously hopeful markets such as Saudi Arabia, where growth is faltering.
While the premiumisation trend gains traction, the premium segment has seen a US$1 billion cut to its absolute growth forecast. While forecasts remain better than the mass segment (3.8% vs 2.6%), the magnitude is greater for the premium segment due to its smaller size relative to mass beauty and personal care, making the premium competitive landscape harsher to operate in.
Russia is witnessing a recovery, posting a healthy performance in 2016, and an upgrade to its CAGR over the forecast period. Among the winners were local players and direct sellers, which adapted strategies that were in tune with rational buying behaviour, such as pricing and buying local.
With premium beauty facing an uphill struggle to keep demand intact, legacy brands such as Mac face slowing sales, not only due to market slowdown, but niche labels making a hit, as well as mass-positioned mainstream brands, such as Kiko Milano offering near-premium benefits at affordable price points.
Kiko Milano, Nyx and Urban Decay are among the make-up labels making leaps and bounds, driven by store network expansion, as they become the new mainstream. While their success is to be lauded, newer disruptive entrants would play their game to grow. Reinvention is key to avoid their demise.