Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q1 2018

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Mar 2018

Continuing improvement in consumer and business sentiment, and reviving investments bring positive forecasts to GDP growth in major economies. This drives positive momentum in beauty, whose prospects are getting rosier. US is the main source of revisions as new tax cut leaves companies with more means to expand through acquisition to fully leverage growth momentum. Skin care comes into spotlight as consumers are recognising the importance of prevention in pursuit of healthier lifestyles.

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Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q1 2018

GDP Growth Highlights

The US

Stronger-than-expected growth at the end of 2017 and passage of the Republicans’ long-awaited tax cuts have led us to raise US GDP growth forecast to 2.3% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.

Eurozone

The Eurozone economy outperformed in 2017, with private sector optimism close to levels of the early 2000s. GDP growth will remain significantly above the trend, reaching 2.2% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019.

The UK

Brexit uncertainty is expected to weigh on investments, while low income growth and consumer confidence should depress spending growth. UK GDP is forecast to grow by 1.4% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.

Japan

Economic growth in Japan is backed by robust investment and exports demand. However, wage growth remains weak hindering spending. We expect GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2018 and 0.9% in 2019.

China

Strong public investment, robust consumption growth and improving foreign demand support growth in China. We have lifted real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.

Brazil

Low inflation and interest rates, along with falling unemployment, support consumer spending in Brazil. GDP growth has finally turned positive, and is likely to reach 2.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

Russia

Russia’s economic rebound has turned softer than expected, despite the steady increase in oil prices. The real GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.3% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.

India

India’s economy has started to lift up from the joint disruption of demonetisation and GST reforms. Further strengthening is likely, with GDP growth of 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.

Q1 in Beauty and Personal Care

Executive summary
Real GDP growth forecasts: revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Major macro risks for Beauty and Personal Care industry
Healthy global economy drives positive momentum in Beauty and Personal Care
Premium growth to reach limits, while mass spur
Discretionary categories the biggest winners
Recognition of prevention is driving skin care
Skin care shapes M&A direction in a beauty world
Tax reform brings positive outlook for US
Companies looking to embrace potential of US market
Surging Western European economic performance fuels upgrades
Scenarios: Brexit cliff-edge draws near
Japan premium skin care targets younger generations
L’Oréal rides the beauty wave in Indonesia
Avon: Coty dilemma and implications for Brazil
The end of tax-free living worsens beauty prospects for Saudi Arabia
Conclusions: Q1 prospects in global BPC

Appendix

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained

Appendix: Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models