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Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q1 2019

March 2019

The February Q1 update reveals a marginally improved picture in beauty and personal care (BPC), but overall growth remained unchanged standing at a CAGR of 2.7%. Uncertainty around Brexit, economic hardship in Latin America and the expected GDP deceleration in the US contribute towards volatility in the BPC market.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key Findings

Premium beauty and personal care (BPC) offers higher gains but greater risk

With the Q1 update, premium BPC is expected to add USD462 million comparatively to mass that will only add USD96 million through to 2022. At the same time, the premium segment is subject to higher market uncertainty especially in developed markets where the majority of sales come from and where it relies on GDP to a greater extent.

Potential of exploring skin care in the US

Skin care in the US is the major category to benefit from the Q1 upgrade with value sales forecast to reach USD21.4 million by 2022. Acting on soft drivers such as product variety by innovating and launching new products would represent a great opportunity to capitalise on lucrative skin care.

China is not slowing down yet

The BPC market in China witnesses an upgrade despite growing concerns about a domestic demand slowdown and the impact of the US-China trade war. Major market players including L'Oréal and Estée Lauder reported significant gains in China noting that they experienced no slowdown in the latest quarter. Growth of the upper middle class in future will continue driving positive BPC performance in China pushing companies to further explore significant unmet potential in the Chinese BPC market.

Olympics may boost BPC market in Japan

Population and demographics are limiting BPC volume potential as Japan’s population is ageing rapidly, while birth rates are forecast to further decline. However J-Beauty has a unique appeal and international reach to a certain extent, which bodes well to counteract the ageing population. Likewise, the industry has the potential for a boost given the number of tourists expected to visit Japan for the Olympics in 2020.

Executive summary
GDP growth forecasts: revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Major macro risks for beauty and personal care industry
Key findings
BPC faces positive upgrade amidst global uncertainty
Premium BPC is tempting but risky, mass represents more potential
Internationals looking to achieve personalisation at scale in skin care
US is a major beneficiary of Q1 update
Embracing the skin care opportunity in the US
No slowdown in China
Japan’s potential limited by population, but Olympics may provide boost
Brexit causes speculation but BPC is expected to remain resilient
Mixed results for Eurozone with Q1
Turbulent times for Unilever in Argentina
Natura is going premium and looking beyond volatile home market
Challenges and opportunities in Turkey
Conclusions: Q1 prospects in global BPC
About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Model

Beauty and Personal Care

This is the aggregation of baby and child-specific products, bath & shower, deodorants, hair care, colour cosmetics, men's grooming, oral hygiene, fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.

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