The August 2018 Q3 update reveals a marginally improved picture in beauty and personal care (BPC) as the economic outlook for most countries remains unchanged. The forecast value CAGR was upgraded slightly, resulting in an increase in the anticipated CAGR from 2.7% to 2.8%. Events such as Brexit; growing trade tensions between the US, China and the EU; the election of a populist government in Italy, and a truck strike in Brazil contribute to the uncertainly in the BPC market.
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We have raised US real GDP growth forecasts to 2.7% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Fiscal stimulus is the key contributor to the faster growth, while private sector confidence remains high.
The Eurozone economy has slowed down. Yet private confidence remains high and borrowing costs - low. Real GDP growth forecast lowered to 2.1% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.
Brexit uncertainty continues hurting the UK economy. Following weak economic performance in Q1 2018, the real GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.2% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.
Weaker-than-expected Q1 2018 economic performance in Japan and tensions in the foreign trade arena have resulted in a real GDP growth forecast decline to 1.1% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019.
China’s GDP rose by 6.8% in the first half of 2018, but output growth is likely to slow in the second half. The real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.
Lower growth in Q1 2018, falling consumer confidence and a truckers’ strike have prompted us to cut Brazil’s real GDP growth to 1.9% in 2018. The forecast for 2019 is unchanged at 2.5%.
A higher oil price has had a positive impact on the Russian economy. Domestic demand is also supporting GDP growth. We see real GDP grow by 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
India’s economy appears to be back on track. Investment growth is expected to continue as demand improves. This keeps our real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.