Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q3 2018

Strategy Briefing

About This Report

Aug 2018

The August 2018 Q3 update reveals a marginally improved picture in beauty and personal care (BPC) as the economic outlook for most countries remains unchanged. The forecast value CAGR was upgraded slightly, resulting in an increase in the anticipated CAGR from 2.7% to 2.8%. Events such as Brexit; growing trade tensions between the US, China and the EU; the election of a populist government in Italy, and a truck strike in Brazil contribute to the uncertainly in the BPC market.

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Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q3 2018

GDP Growth Highlights

US

We have raised US real GDP growth forecasts to 2.7% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Fiscal stimulus is the key contributor to the faster growth, while private sector confidence remains high.

Eurozone

The Eurozone economy has slowed down. Yet private confidence remains high and borrowing costs - low. Real GDP growth forecast lowered to 2.1% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019.

UK

Brexit uncertainty continues hurting the UK economy. Following weak economic performance in Q1 2018, the real GDP growth forecast has been downgraded to 1.2% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.

Japan

Weaker-than-expected Q1 2018 economic performance in Japan and tensions in the foreign trade arena have resulted in a real GDP growth forecast decline to 1.1% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019.

China

China’s GDP rose by 6.8% in the first half of 2018, but output growth is likely to slow in the second half. The real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019.

Brazil

Lower growth in Q1 2018, falling consumer confidence and a truckers’ strike have prompted us to cut Brazil’s real GDP growth to 1.9% in 2018. The forecast for 2019 is unchanged at 2.5%.

Russia

A higher oil price has had a positive impact on the Russian economy. Domestic demand is also supporting GDP growth. We see real GDP grow by 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.

India

India’s economy appears to be back on track. Investment growth is expected to continue as demand improves. This keeps our real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.

Q3 in Beauty and Personal Care

Executive summary
GDP growth forecasts: revisions over last quarter
Global risk scenarios
Scenario news
Major macro risks for beauty and personal care industry
Key findings
BPC faces positive upgrade amidst global uncertainty
Premium BPC is tempting but risky, mass represents more potential
Derma brands capitalising on skin care upgrade
Urbanisation to sustain longevity of skin protection trend
US jumping on the natural trend benefiting from expanding distribution
Inclusivity becomes driving force for colour cosmetics
World Cup not enough to boost consumption in Russia
Truck drivers‘ strike bites in Brazil
Trade war disrupting BPC space in the US, the EU and China
Australian beauty is expanding globally
Italy to follow the UK in attempts to leave EU family?
Economic reforms benefit Egypt but old consumption habits are hard to break
M&As show no signs of slowing down
Conclusions: Q3 prospects in global BPC

Appendix

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Model