Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q3 2019

August 2019

Euromonitor’s August Q3 update reveals a downgrade in beauty and personal care (BPC), but overall growth remained unchanged at a CAGR of 4%. Uncertainty around the Brexit, Emerging Markets Slowdown, Global Crisis, Eurozone Recession and US-China All-Out Trade War scenarios affected the global downgrade of BPC and slowdown of global GDP growth.

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Key Findings

Premium and mass beauty and personal care (BPC) declines globally

have a major impact on the performance of the BPC industry.   With the Q3 update, premium BPC is expected to decline USD994 million comparatively to mass that will decline USD982 million through to 2023. The Global Crisis, US-China All-Out Trade War, Emerging Markets Slowdown, Eurozone Recession scenarios and uncertainty around Brexit

Potential of exploring skin care in the China

China has seen less of an impact from foreign exchange fluctuations and inflation, and GDP growth is healthy, thus it remains an attractive proposition for the industry. With estimated unmet potential of USD135 billion in retail sales of beauty and personal care, there are significant opportunities for long-term growth.

Poland is an attractive market for international beauty players

Beauty and personal care continued to grow in Poland in 2018 thanks to rising demand, fuelled by the strength of the Polish economy. With estimated unmet potential of USD2.2 billion in retail sales of beauty and personal care, there are significant opportunities for long-term growth. The financial situation for households in Poland improved significantly in the last few years of the review period.

Turkey remains an uncertain territory

Turkey’s economy has slowed down, impacting the beauty and personal care industry. Turkey has seen significant impact from foreign exchange fluctuations and inflation, and with unstable GDP, it remains an uncertain territory for international beauty players.

Q3 Macroeconomic Update

Global baseline outlook
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (1)
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (2)
Global risks
Global Risk Index scores and rankings
Global macroeconomic risks for beauty and personal care industry

Q3 Beauty and Personal Care Update

Key findings
Mass beauty is the largest contributor to BPC market (1)
Mass beauty is largest contributor to BPC market (2)
China remains attractive
Strong Polish economy strengthens BPC growth
Embracing skin care opportunity in Poland
Risk of exchange rates and inflation still strong in some markets
Challenges in Turkey
Discretionary categories most at risk from Brexit
No-Deal Brexit negatively impacts global BPC
Eurozone recession in Q3
Natura expands geographical reach with Avon acquisition
Natura’s acquisition of Avon
Skin care is ripe for mergers and acquisitions
Conclusions: Q3 prospects in global BPC

Appendix

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for the Industry Forecast Model
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