Strategy Briefing

Beauty and Personal Care Quarterly Statement Q3 2020

Sep 2020

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The Q3 update of 2020 reveals a general downgrade in the beauty and personal care industry, as the global economy is forecast to enter a recession. Consumers are re-evaluating their life priorities as a result of the changes brought about by the pandemic, which has affected in different ways the demand for beauty and personal products. China will continue to be a bright spot for the industry due to the country’s better response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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Overview

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Key Findings

Premium and mass BPC witness downgrades in forecast growth

The Q3 update of August 2020 reveals a general downgrade in the beauty and personal care industry, as the global economy is forecast to enter its worst recession since the 1930s. Yet the massive changes brought about by the pandemic are also leading consumers to re-evaluate their life priorities, giving rise to new attitudes towards physical distance and health.

Skin health becomes paramount amidst pandemic anxiety

Despite the expectation of a marginal decline in sales in 2020, skin care remains the largest growth opportunity among all product categories over the next five years. The adoption of more health and prevention-orientated lifestyles, with skin health being a key component, is expected to gain further relevance as a response to COVID-19.

Further opportunities for BPC in China

The expected rebound of consumption in the Chinese economy in 2021, changes in animal testing regulation, continuing population growth and the further expansion of e-commerce provide a firm platform for the growth and development of beauty companies in the Chinese market.

E-commerce sales growing exponentially

Consumers’ pace of digital adoption and rate of digital literacy increased rapidly as countries implemented restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19. A significant proportion of converted e-shoppers is anticipated to remain in the long-term.

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Introduction

Scope

Euromonitor International and Coronavirus (COVID-19): forecasts and analysis

Beauty and personal care COVID-19 data and reporting timeline

Key findings

Q3 2020 Macroeconomic Update

Global economy will contract sharply in 2020

In our baseline view, the pandemic slows in the second half of 2020

Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak

Our view in short

Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios

Q3 2020 BPC Update

BPC among the top 10 negatively impacted fmcg industries

Downgrade for the BPC industry in the latest quarter

98% of researched markets are downgraded in Q3 2020

Premium BPC will grow at a faster rate than mass in all pessimistic scenarios

Asia Pacific a lifeline for premium beauty and personal care

Mass BPC remains the largest segment in terms of value sales

The industry recovers in 2021 under C19 pessimistic 1 scenario

Routes to disruption in beauty and personal care

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model (IFM)

S oft drivers: how we quantify these COVID-19 specific effects in the IFM

Home seclusion has a more short-term effect than preventative health

Channel shift to e-commerce is set to persist beyond 2020

Further investment in digital

Health and self-care care will support growth of skin care

‘Natural’ innovative propositions in skin care

China continues to see rapid growth in beauty and personal care

Chinese market is core to recovery

New attitudes towards physical distance and health will stay

About our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Beauty and Personal Care Quarterly Statement Q3 2020

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Key Findings

Premium and mass BPC witness downgrades in forecast growth

Skin health becomes paramount amidst pandemic anxiety

Further opportunities for BPC in China

E-commerce sales growing exponentially

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Euromonitor International and Coronavirus (COVID-19): forecasts and analysis

Beauty and personal care COVID-19 data and reporting timeline

Key findings

Q3 2020 Macroeconomic Update

Global economy will contract sharply in 2020

In our baseline view, the pandemic slows in the second half of 2020

Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak

Our view in short

Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios

Q3 2020 BPC Update

BPC among the top 10 negatively impacted fmcg industries

Downgrade for the BPC industry in the latest quarter

98% of researched markets are downgraded in Q3 2020

Premium BPC will grow at a faster rate than mass in all pessimistic scenarios

Asia Pacific a lifeline for premium beauty and personal care

Mass BPC remains the largest segment in terms of value sales

The industry recovers in 2021 under C19 pessimistic 1 scenario

Routes to disruption in beauty and personal care

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model (IFM)

S oft drivers: how we quantify these COVID-19 specific effects in the IFM

Home seclusion has a more short-term effect than preventative health

Channel shift to e-commerce is set to persist beyond 2020

Further investment in digital

Health and self-care care will support growth of skin care

‘Natural’ innovative propositions in skin care

China continues to see rapid growth in beauty and personal care

Chinese market is core to recovery

New attitudes towards physical distance and health will stay

About our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

Growth decomposition explained

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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