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Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q4 2019

January 2020

The December Q4 update reveals a 0.2% downgrade in beauty and personal care (BPC), with a CAGR of 2.5% predicted over 2018-2023. Uncertainty around Brexit, Emerging Markets Slow-Down, Global Crisis, Eurozone Recession and US-China All-Out Trade War has led a slowdown in global GDP growth and to the global downgrade in growth in beauty and personal care.

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Key Findings

Premium and mass beauty and personal care (BPC) witness downgrades in forecast growth

With the Q4 update, forecast growth of premium beauty and personal care is predicted to decline by USD1.2 billion over 2018-2023, while mass beauty and personal care by USD1.3billion respectively. A decline in business confidence, manufacturing and trade growth in Q4 increased the probability of the Global Downturn, Emerging Markets Slowdown and Global Crisis scenarios.

Demand for clean and natural products, alongside high-efficacy features, drive innovation and growth in skin care

Despite a marginal downgrade with the Q4 update, skin care remains the largest growth opportunity among all product categories for the next five years. The green and clean beauty movement has been one of the major drivers in skin care, as an extension of the adoption of more health and prevention orientated lifestyles, with skin health being a key component.

Stable Egyptian economy supports beauty and personal care industry

Despite greater geopolitical uncertainty in Middle East, beauty and personal care experienced an upgrade in the Q4, and is expected to add USD10 million by 2023. Egypt is witnessing a stabilisation in prices and the economy. With aggressive restrictions placed on international brands, local brands have become more popular among Egyptians.

Further opportunities in mass beauty and personal care in China

The Q4 beauty and personal care update in China, as of December 2019, suggests a decline of USD16 million. Despite the negative outlook for the Chinese economy, mass beauty and personal care has seen an upgrade of USD21 million over 2018-2023. The large consumer base for mass beauty and personal care products provides a firm platform for development in the Chinese market.

 

Q4 Macroeconomic Update

Global baseline outlook (1)
Global baseline outlook (2)
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (1)
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter (2)
Global risks
Global Risk Index scores and rankings
Global macroeconomic risks for beauty and personal care industry

Q4 Beauty and Personal Care Update

Key findings
Mass beauty is the largest contributor to beauty and personal care
Premium beauty sees strong growth in Malaysia and Poland
Efficacy of ingredients prevails over “natural” attributes in skin care
Local players and competitive pricing boost beauty growth in Egypt
Mass beauty provides further opportunities in China
Risk of exchange rates and inflation still strong in some markets
Recession in Eurozone continues throughout Q4
Brexit and uncertain cosmetics regulation
Skin care significantly affected by No-Deal Brexit
Shiseido targets younger generations with Drunk Elephant acquisition
Conclusions: Q4 prospects in global beauty and personal care

Appendix

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Model

Beauty and Personal Care

This is the aggregation of baby and child-specific products, bath & shower, deodorants, hair care, colour cosmetics, men's grooming, oral hygiene, fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.

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