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Beauty and Personal Care: Quarterly Statement Q4 2020

December 2020

This briefing provides updates on Euromonitor’s December 2020 forecast restatement for the Beauty and Personal Care industry, deciphering how the industry is navigating the pandemic , changes from baseline projections and highlighting future risks and opportunities.

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This report comes in PPT.

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Quarterly Forecast Restatements

Regularly updated retail market forecasts to reflect latest macro expectations (eg quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth revisions) for all markets.

“What If?” Scenario Analysis

See and compare how a hypothetical event (ie Eurozone recession, China hard landing, Brexit) stands to impact different market forecasts.

Growth Decomposition and Demand Driver Elasticities

Understand, compare and respond to the forces driving expected market growth across different product categories and countries.

Assess Market Potential

See the ceiling on retail volume or value sales and growth, regardless of a specific forecast scenario. How much more can that market really grow?

 

Introduction

Scope
Euromonitor International and COVID-19: forecasts and analysis
Beauty and personal care COVID-19 data and reporting timeline

Q4 2020 Macroeconomic Update

Summer was more optimistic, but the pandemic starts the second wave
In our baseline view, economies start rebounding in 2021
Three scenarios examining the impact of a more severe outbreak
Our view in short
Forecast real GDP growth in 2020 under different scenarios

Q4 2020 BPC Update

Further downgrades for 2020 but a better recovery expected in 2021
2021 rebound in sight even under C19 pessimistic 1 scenario
Mixed geographical responses in Q4 2020
Home seclusion and dip in inbound tourism hit premium beauty in Japan
Big uncertainty surrounding India’s recovery
Shift towards essentials revitalises staples, prompting an upbeat outlook
Therapeutic skin care to thrive in both the mass and premium segments
“Maskne” solutions increase growth potential for acne treatments
Digital testing and subscription models to revive fragrances
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model (IFM)
Soft drivers: how we quantify these COVID-19 specific effects in the IFM
Cleansing products to flourish on the back of improved hygiene practices
Investment in digital continues to proliferate
Sustainability efforts support narratives of purpose and conscious beauty

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Beauty and Personal Care

This is the aggregation of baby and child-specific products, bath & shower, deodorants, hair care, colour cosmetics, men's grooming, oral hygiene, fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.

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