Beauty and Personal Care Quarterly Statement Q4 2021

January 2022

Q4 2021 forecast shows slight downgrade in global beauty, but most of the top 10 beauty markets were upgraded for 2025 projections in Q4 2021. A higher anticipated growth in beauty and personal care in 2021 reflects the ongoing global economic recovery, which, despite the circulation of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, is expected due to wider vaccine availability. However, rising inflation across FMCG adds pressure on beauty players to compete for consumers’ discretionary spend.

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Key Applications for Industry Forecast Models

Quarterly forecast restatements

Regularly updated retail market forecasts to reflect latest macro expectations (eg quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth revisions) for all markets.

“What If?” scenario analysis

See and compare how a hypothetical event (ie Eurozone recession, China hard landing, Brexit) stands to impact different market forecasts.

Growth decomposition and demand driver elasticities

Understand, compare and respond to the forces driving expected market growth across different product categories and countries.

Assess market potential

See the ceiling on retail volume or value sales and growth, regardless of a specific forecast scenario. How much more can that market really grow?

 

Introduction

Scope

INTRODUCTION

Euromonitor International and Coronavirus (COVID-19): forecasts and analysis
Beauty and personal care COVID-19 data and reporting timeline

Q4 2021 Macroeconomic Update

Delta, omicron variants and supply constraints tempered economic recovery
Forecast risks remain tilted to the downside
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter, EMDE

Q4 2021 BPC Update

Q4 2021 forecast shows slight downgrade in global beauty
Most top 10 beauty markets upgraded for 2025 projections in Q4 2021
Rising inflation adds pressure on discretionary spend
Pricing strength varies in top four markets with highest gains in inflation
Soft drivers favour growth in China and US, but at different stages
Business activity during Q4 2021 focuses on skin care, digital, e-commerce
Fragrances, along with skin care, continues to lead beauty recovery

About Our Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models
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