Beer in Belarus

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

High overall sales and moderate growth in beer signs of the category’s maturity

2019 saw beer in Belarus record moderate sales growth and this can be seen primarily as the result of the category’s high levels of maturity. Nevertheless, beer also faces stiff competition from other categories of alcoholic drinks, with the unhealthy image of beer a major stumbling block to stronger growth at a time when many among the core target audiences of young people and higher-income consumers are becoming more interested in healthier lifestyles.

Most beer sales accounted for by low-cost options bought by price-sensitive people

Although recent years have seen a significant expansion of Belarus’ relatively affluent urban middle-class, price-sensitivity remains prevalent among the majority of the country’s population, especially outside of Minsk and the country’s dozen or so other major urban areas. Thus, demand in beer remains centred on domestic mid-priced lager and domestic economy lager.

New product development remains the hallmark of a dynamic and shifting category

During 2019, many of the leading names in beer in Belarus remain highly active in terms of new product development, a sign that the category remains a site of dynamism and a hive of company and brand activity. Bobruiski Brovar extended its brand list further during the year with the launch of Miller Genuine Draft and Staropramen, with these products imported from Russia, where they are brewed under license by Heineken.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

On-trade volume sales of beer are expected to fall by 30% in 2020 in light of the impact of COVID-19. This represents a much worse performance than an expected 1% rise forecast for 2020 during research conducted in May 2019, ie before the spread of COVID-19.

Affected products within beer

Somewhat predictably, premium brands were prominent among those most negatively affected by the impact of COVID-19 on sales of beer in Belarus during the first half of 2020. With many consumers reluctant to socialise outside of the home due to the elevated risk of contagion the peak of the pandemic, on-trade sales declined much faster than off-trade sales, with imported premium lager and domestic premium lager the categories to register the strongest sales declines.

Recovery and opportunities

It is expected that it will take several years for sales of beer to recover from the strong declines that are expected to be seen in the category over the course of 2020. This is particularly true in the on-trade channel, where the strongest declines are expected due to COVID-19.

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