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Breakfast Cereals in Middle East and Africa

February 2020

While the Middle East region has a culturally entrenched set of menu items that have been historically consumed for breakfast, this seems to be slowly transitioning from traditional to modern westernized dishes. This report studies the forces leading to the change in consumption patterns within the region and their impact on the value growth of the breakfast cereals category.

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Key findings

MEA offers growth potential following a high historic CAGR and positive outlook

Despite MEA having the lowest per capita consumption after Asia Pacific and an average market size, there is much room for growth, with the region having one of the youngest populations worldwide, and with increased urbanisation across sub-Saharan Africa. Growth is also being driven by innovation in the health and wellness arena, with brands competing to deliver healthier, fortified and natural breakfast cereals.

Sugar taxes and strict government regulation impact consumption habits and threaten the performance of manufacturers

The high obesity rate across the GCC and increasing health concerns across the region have led multiple countries to enforce a sugar tax to cap the amount of sugar in packaged food. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and South Africa have already implemented sugar taxes on beverages and are studying proposals to apply a similar tax to packaged food items soon. The Israeli government has also announced a technique to label packaged food with a high content of sugar and/or salt.

Growth of private label across the region

As consumers are becoming budget-conscious, private label is increasing its value sales. Countries such as South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Cameroon and Israel have seen the increasing prominence of private label products across retail shelves. With established distribution chains across multiple territories, the private label share will only increase in the forecast period.

Landscape is quickly transitioning to modern retailing

With improved infrastructure across the region and increased urbanisation, consumers are becoming accustomed to the convenience and wide choice available through modern retail outlets and are slowly abandoning traditional retailers in the main cities. On the other hand, residents in rural areas still prefer traditional retailers for their proximity and economic prices.

Introduction

Scope
Key findings

Regional Overview

MEA has potential for growth, with a high historic CAGR
Despite stable growth 2017-2019, the forecast looks optimistic
Product diversification drives sales of breakfast cereals
Sugar tax and government initiatives to limit growth
Breakfast cereals find success in South Africa, Morocco and UAE
Economic pressures and health concerns shape the category
The landscape is quickly transitioning to modern retailing
Diversity and in-store promotions increase share of supermarkets

Leading Companies and Brands

International brands maintain the lead, while private label flourishes
Kellogg maintains its lead despite a declining value share
South Africa, Nigeria and GCC contribute bulk of international brands
Kellogg’s and Quaker maintain their lead in breakfast cereals

Forecast Projections

South Africa and Nigeria lead; the latter set to see strongest growth
Urbanisation and adapting to a Western lifestyles will drive growth
Market environment to positively affect forecast across the region
Nigeria, Egypt and Morocco show the highest unmet potential
Population and soft drivers to fuel growth in breakfast cereals

Country Snapshots

Algeria – market context
Algeria – competitive and retail landscape
Cameroon – market context
Cameroon – competitive and retail landscape
Egypt – market context
Egypt – competitive and retail landscape
Israel – market context
Israel – competitive and retail landscape
Kenya – market context
Kenya – competitive and retail landscape
Morocco – market context
Morocco – competitive and retail landscape
Nigeria – market context
Nigeria – competitive and retail landscape
Saudi Arabia – market context
Saudi Arabia – competitive and retail landscape
South Africa – market context
South Africa – competitive and retail landscape
Tunisia – market context
Tunisia – competitive and retail landscape
United Arab Emirates – market context
United Arab Emirates – competitive and retail landscape

Appendix: Competitor Analytics

Competitor Analytics tool
Overview
Competitors
Market overlap
Treemap
Overlap matrices

Appendix: Industry Forecast Model

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model
Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model
Growth decomposition explained
Significance and applications for growth decomposition
Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

Appendix: Via Pricing

About Via Pricing from Euromonitor International
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