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Butter continues to grow in popularity in the UK and recorded a 1% hike in volume terms in 2017. The growth in demand can be largely attributed to the fact that British consumers are increasingly opting for less processed and more natural products. This is in agreement with the health and wellness trend sweeping the UK, in which consumer choices are increasingly driven by whether products are considered healthy or not. As health concerns shifted away from fats towards sugars and margarine and other dairy spreads were increasingly considered to be processed and unnatural, the butter industry continued to benefit from this health and wellness trend in 2017. Similarly, the home baking trend, generated by the popularity of baking and cooking shows such as the Great British Bake Off, also boosted the popularity of butter, as the product is increasingly used as an ingredient.
The butter and margarine industry in the UK continued to be dominated by Arla Foods, Unilever Foods UK and Dairy Crest in 2017, with the top three jointly holding a 67% value share. Arla registered all of its butter and margarine sales in butter, where it possesses a 58% value share, while Unilever was the market leader in margarine and spreads with a 49% share. Dairy Crest, however, operated in both the butter and the margarine and spreads categories, in which it held an 11% and a 23% value share, respectively. While Unilever and Dairy Crest lost value share in 2017, Arla Foods continued to reinforce its position as market leader. Its success can be attributed to the strong performance of the Lurpak butter range, which benefited from the upsurge in demand for butter in the UK. The brand registered value growth of 4% in 2017.
Butter is expected to increase at a 2% constant value CAGR over 2017-2022, a faster rate than that seen over the review period. Growth will be driven by consumers continuing to opt for products that are natural or less processed, and, therefore, switching from margarine and spreads to butter. Although the expected increase in retail volume will be a significant contributor to value growth in the forecast period, an anticipated continuation of unit price growth will also be of importance. With uncertainty expected to continue as Brexit negotiations with the EU continue, and the pound sterling anticipated to remain relatively weak, it is likely that milk and butter exports will increase throughout the forecast period. As an increase in dairy exports will take its toll on domestic butter supplies, butter prices are expected to continue to rise during the forecast period.
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