Carbonates in Belarus

2021 DEVELOPMENTS

Price sensitivity reshaping consumption habits

In 2021, non-cola carbonates is set to see retail volume growth after years of consistent decline over the review period. This is a reflection of the impact of the pandemic on disposable incomes.

Pandemic accelerates reduced sugar trend

Like consumer bases all over the world, Belarusians have become increasingly health aware as a result of the pandemic, with the negative links between obesity and the virus widely understood. Health trends were beginning to strengthen at the start of the review period, but COVID-19 has greatly accelerated them.

Off trade trends define carbonates consumption

In 2021, carbonated drinks volume sales growth in Belarus continues to be stimulated by home consumption. Despite the return to growth of sales into the on-trade, volume sales through the channel have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, partly because of the drop in consumer spending power and partly because of the reluctance of many consumers to return to foodservice for safety reasons.

PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Leading brands threatened by cheaper alternatives

Belarus faces significant challenges to its economy over the forecast period, with the series of sanctions placed on the country likely to drastically restrict recovery. Price sensitivity is therefore likely to become structural over the forecast period, rather than simply habitual, with consumers trading down to less expensive carbonated drinks.

Functionality may offer opportunity

Burgeoning health trends will stimulate the development of more healthy options in carbonated drinks kinds, with lower sugar and no artificial ingredients likely to feature more heavily in marketing. The crisis has drawn attention to total health, and Belarusians are overhauling their diets as a result.

Category leaders under threat, as window opens for smaller players

It is worth noting that Coca Cola saw a drop in value share in the off-trade in 2021, a trend that is likely to continue going forward due to the higher unit price of the brand’s products. Over the forecast period, historically dominant players, like Coca-Cola Beverages Belarus and PepsiCo OOO Holdings are set to see growing competition from cheaper local players, inexpensive imported brands and private label.