Case study

Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

Underlying drivers in tampon growth

Our client wanted to identify the underlying drivers affecting tampon growth in major developing markets to support market prioritisation development. Additionally, the client wanted to determine possible anchor markets as a model for countries in similar stages of market development and category awareness. Lastly, their goal was to identify key factors signalling a tipping point for future growth within emerging markets.

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What we did

Euromonitor Consulting conducted a cluster analysis allocating variables into specific groups with similar socio-demographic and economic characteristics. From the clusters, we identified key drivers of growth among 51 countries tracked in Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model.

Our Industry Forecast Model employs econometric techniques through assessing the relationship between historic quantifiable variables. By using these metrics, we can identify country clusters based on both market and social characteristics. We provided the client with six cluster profiles measuring disposable income for females per capita and the share of the urban population out of the total population. 

Additionally, our team provided a share of top-1 religion out of all religions, female labour force participation rate and share of modern grocery retail out of total grocery.

Clusters were ordered from lowest to highest levels of female empowerment to economic development. Our report highlighted the full clustering output, including a segmentation tree, the cluster profiles and market evolution paths. Additionally, the report included the full dataset with all the input and output data used. 

The results

The findings of the study helped the client identify opportunities in the short, medium and long-term by providing market clusters and specific growth drivers tied to each time-frame. Further, our study identified 15 countries expected to jump from their current cluster to a higher cluster by 2030 and represent the greatest opportunity for the client. 

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