In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is not expected to be a significant impact on cigarettes, and it is important to note that there has been no quarantine in Belarus. There have also been no discussions in the media in Belarus regarding cigarette consumption in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, cigarettes with flavoured capsules continued to grow in Belarus, with more and more young and mid-age consumers increasingly interested in such products. As a result, many leading brands have been offering new product developments throughout 2020.
State-owned Neman Tobacco Factory Grodno will continue to lead cigarettes in 2020, because it is strongly supported by the Belarus government and has an extensive portfolio of cigarette brands. The player generates a dominant share of economy cigarettes’ production quotas, which helps support its position.
Over the forecast period, volume sales of cigarettes will continue to decline, however, this will have little to do with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, smoking prevalence will continue to decline in Belarus in 2021 and beyond.
The optimum segment for development in cigarettes is in flavoured tobacco products, which remain popular in Belarus. Flavoured capsule cigarettes continuing to see sales and there have been many new launches within this area, thus, to meet consumer demand.
Over the forecast period, the growth of Tabakerka will increasingly become a threat due to its ability to monopolise the distribution of cigarettes. In 2020, many Tabakerka kiosks have not been operating due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but their total number is already at 3000.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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