Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco in Belarus

2020 IMPACT

Growing healthier lifestyles have a greater impact than the COVID-19 pandemic

Rather than being directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco will be more strongly impacted by shifting consumers trends, in particular the increasing popularity of healthier lifestyles, backed by the government’s smoking legislations and bans. Pipe tobacco has been showing global declines, which has started to be balanced by the growing popularity of shisha tobacco; however, if COVID-19 lockdowns were to come into play which included the closure of shisha bars, this would impact the recovery sales, as shisha tobacco is not currently promoted as a product to smoke at home.

Importation problems caused by international travel bans in 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused problems associated with the availability of cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco as most products are imported from other countries, meaning international travel bans have been having a negative impact. Likewise, when countries reopened, sellers had to wait, due to the high demand coming from all over the world.

Hookah smoking banned in Horeca in response to the COVID-19 pandemic

In 2020, excise tax on hookah tobacco has been introduced, leading the product to go from BYN50 to BYN52.5 by 2021.

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Declining disposable incomes and price increases detriment cigars and cigarillos

Over the forecast period, cigars and cigarillos sales will be negatively affected by disposable income decline as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic alongside price increases. Early growth of excise and local currency depreciation that will be implemented in 2021 are expected to make cigars and cigarillos less attractive to Belarusians, especially given the complicated economic backdrop.

Flavour products grow in popularity

As per noted in cigarettes, recovery and opportunities lie in the ability of players to be able to offer more enhanced and “healthier” smoking experiences for consumers. Flavoured products remain popular and, as the excise rate has dropped for shisha tobacco, this gives great scope for players to innovate with shisha products over the forecast period.

Cuban cigar producers risk losing Belarusian consumers

Over the forecast period, cigar producers from Cuba will concentrate their efforts on selling their products to China. As a result, prices will increase yearly from 5% which risks the demand from Belarusian consumers as these prices will become too expensive for the current economic climate.