Prior to the pandemic, coffee culture was growing in Belarus, due to the development of coffee shops which in turn stimulated interest in better quality of coffee such as fresh ground coffee or coffee beans instead of instant. Thanks to the wide variety and availability of coffee, as well as the rising penetration of modern retailers in local regions, consumers were enjoying a growing assortment of coffee, which stimulated growth towards the end of the review period.
Nestlé will continue to lead value sales in 2020 due to its dominance in instant coffee. The company has a strong store presence and continues to offer a wide variety of instant coffee products such as regular instant standard coffee and coffee mixes.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the foodservice industry will see a sharp decline in volume sales. Although the government in Belarus have not implemented a lockdown or mobility-restrictions, many consumers took it upon themselves to self-isolate and therefore limited their visits to foodservice establishments.
Price will continue to play an important role in consumers’ purchasing decisions at the start of the forecast period as the economy continues to struggle and therefore reduces purchasing powers. However, declining disposable incomes will not likely lead consumers to switch to lower quality coffee but rather, Belarusians will likely consume less instead.
E-commerce has grown significantly in response to the outbreak of COVID-19 however, its growth is from a small base. Home delivery in Belarus is still quite expensive, meaning e-commerce currently has no significant volume sales and this will continue to be a hindrance to growth over the forecast period due to the complex economy.
On-trade volume sales are anticipated to take around three years to recover over the forecast period. As the pandemic comes to an end, foodservice establishments will reopen, and consumers will once again feel confident and safe to drink coffee at these outlets.
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This report originates from Passport, our Coffee research and analysis database.
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