Euromonitor International’s Commerce 2040 series outlines a vision for how consumers might shop in two decades. This report focues on how retail is evolving and considers the competing forces that will influence how shopping behaviour both online and in store will evolve in the years to come. By depicting this long-term view, companies can take meaningful action today to adapt to the changing retail landscape in the digital era.
This Commerce 2040 series explores how new technologies will continue to change the world and focuses on the impact these shifts will have on the future of commerce, both in terms of how it might evolve and what avenues might emerge.
How retail has - and has not - changed
While the retail industry is amid radical shifts, the principles for conducting business have not changed, even in the digital era. Nonetheless, the extent to which digital elevates consumer expectations is - and will continue - changing.
The evolution of the shopping journey is one of the most pervasive trends reinventing retail today. While purchases in the past were transactional in nature, now shopping is a journey, where the purpose is not just about buying, but also relationship building.
There are several competing forces at play that taken together will dictate how the retail industry evolves. These competing forces range from the role of humans versus bots in the commerce experience to whether consumers shop online versus in store to shifting power dynamics between retailers and brands.
How these competing forces take shape and where specific countries, companies and consumers land on the continuum will reshape the industry. In most cases, there is no right or wrong answer. The question relies on where the retailer or brand sees itself on the continuum and if that aligns with its consumer base
Sales of new and used goods to the general public for personal or household consumption. Excludes specialist retailers of motor vehicles, motorcycles, vehicle parts, fuel. Also excludes foodservice, rental and hire and wholesale industries (Cash and Carry). Sales value excluding or including VAT/Sales Tax. Retailing is the aggregation of Store-based retailing and Non-store retailing. Retailing excludes the informal retail sector. Informal retailing is retail trade which is not declared to the tax authorities. Informal retailing encompasses (a) sales generated by unregistered and unlicensed retailers, ie retailers operating illegally, and (b) any proportion of sales generated by a registered and licensed retailer which is not declared to the tax authorities. Unregistered and unlicensed retailers operate predominantly (although not exclusively) as street hawkers or operate open market stalls, as these channels are harder for the authorities to monitor than permanent outlets. Activities in the illegal market, which is usually understood to refer to trade in illegal, counterfeit or stolen merchandise, are included within our definition of informal retailing. Activities in the “grey market”, which is usually understood to refer to trade in legal merchandise that is sold through unauthorized channels – for example cigarettes bought legally in another country, legally imported, but sold at lower prices than in authorized channels – will be included as informal retailing if no tax is paid on sale by the retailer. However if the retailer pays tax – for example on cigarettes bought legally in another country but sold at a lower price than standard – the sale is included within formal retailing. In relation to click and collect purchases (i.e. where purchases are made over the internet but picked up at store) where the sales data is attributed depends on where the payment is made: If payment is made in store, then the sale is included in store-based sales. If payment is made over the internet, then the sale is included in internet retailing.
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