Consumer gross lending will show a notable slowdown in growth in both outstanding balance and gross lending in 2021. Despite high involvement from the Central Bank of Russia, including new legislation and macroprudential requirements for unsecured consumer loans, consumer demand for credit continues to grow.
In March 2021, the Central Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 4.5% for the first time since 2018.
Following the strong double-digit growth recorded in the first year of the pandemic, the gross lending for mortgages/housing will be slightly in 2021. There are two key reasons for this.
In response to the COVID-19 crisis and lockdown measures, Russian consumers have been turning to the internet for all kinds of purchases and services. This also applies to consumer lending, with the share of loans initiated online growing significantly in 2020 and 2021.
The economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to negatively influence growth within consumer lending over the forecast period. Although there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding economic recovery, unemployment rates are likely to continue rising, thus negatively impacting disposable incomes and willingness to take on debt.
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Consumer Lending
Aggregate of Consumer Credit and Mortgages/Housing. Gross Lending: The total value of loans advanced by institutions in a given year; data refers to single year only. Outstanding Balance: The collective amount owed by borrowers at the end of a given year; data refers to the cumulative impact of debt.
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Consumer Lending research and analysis database.
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