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Country Risk Index: 2019

July 2019

This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Country Risk Index as a tool for comparing macroeconomic risks across countries. The Country Risk Index provides an estimate of the expected decline in income levels or market sizes under adverse macroeconomic conditions relative to the baseline outlook. The index can be used be used to rank countries by their macroeconomic riskiness and to incorporate a typical pessimistic scenario into business decisions.

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Key Findings

What is the Country Risk Index?

Strategic plans for market entry, business investment/expansion and cost/revenue forecasts require a strong awareness of both baseline economic country/market outlooks and the exposure of countries/markets to downside economic risks.

This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Country Risk Index as a tool for understanding and comparing downside economic risks across 54 markets, representing almost 90% of the global economy.

For each country, the Country Risk Index provides an estimate of the expected decline in economic activity, income levels or market sizes under adverse macroeconomic conditions relative to the baseline outlook.

This estimate can be used by organisations in a wide range of sectors to rank countries by their macroeconomic riskiness, or to incorporate a pessimistic scenario into financial analysis and business decisions in a simple way – focusing on a single representative downside scenario instead of multiple alternatives.

The index incorporates 12 global downside economic scenarios, representing risks due to major global events, for example trade wars, and two country-specific downside economic scenarios, representing country-specific shocks to private sector sentiment, financial markets and geopolitical conditions.

Country Risk Index Introduction

What is the Country Risk Index?
Methodology at a glance
Global risk scenarios
Country Risk Index 2019 ranking
What do country risk scores mean?

Global Country Risk Distribution

Lower risk countries
Higher risk countries
Emerging and developing economies are more exposed to economic risks
Developed countries are most vulnerable to regional fluctuations

Country Risk Profiles

Low risk countries: Switzerland
Low risk countries: Australia
Low risk countries: Canada
Low risk countries: US
Low risk countries: France
Above average risk countries: Mexico
Above average risk countries: Russia
High risk countries: Turkey
High risk countries: Ukraine
High risk countries: Argentina

Complete Country Risk Index Ranking

Country Risk Index 2019: Low risk and below average risk countries
Country Risk Index 2019: Average risk countries
Country Risk Index 2019: Above average and high risk countries

Methodological Appendix

Country Risk Index: Technical definition
Country Risk Index: Probability weights
Descriptions of country risk scenarios
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