This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Country Risk Index as a tool for comparing macroeconomic risks across countries. The Country Risk Index provides an estimate of the expected decline in income levels or market sizes under adverse macroeconomic conditions relative to the baseline outlook. The index can be used be used to rank countries by their macroeconomic riskiness and to incorporate a typical pessimistic scenario into business decisions.
Strategic plans for market entry, business investment/expansion and cost/revenue forecasts require a strong awareness of both baseline economic country/market outlooks and the exposure of countries/markets to downside economic risks.
This report introduces Euromonitor International’s Country Risk Index as a tool for understanding and comparing downside economic risks across 54 markets, representing almost 90% of the global economy.
For each country, the Country Risk Index provides an estimate of the expected decline in economic activity, income levels or market sizes under adverse macroeconomic conditions relative to the baseline outlook.
This estimate can be used by organisations in a wide range of sectors to rank countries by their macroeconomic riskiness, or to incorporate a pessimistic scenario into financial analysis and business decisions in a simple way – focusing on a single representative downside scenario instead of multiple alternatives.
The index incorporates 12 global downside economic scenarios, representing risks due to major global events, for example trade wars, and two country-specific downside economic scenarios, representing country-specific shocks to private sector sentiment, financial markets and geopolitical conditions.
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