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Dairy in Canada

October 2020

After seeing a retail volume decline and only slow current value growth in 2019, sales of butter and spreads are expected to increase strongly in 2020, mainly due to COVID-19. Consumers had to spend more time at home due to the lockdown from mid-March, which led to higher consumption within the home, especially as many people turned to cooking at home and baking to pass the time. Although lockdowns have eased, the situation remains uncertain and many people are still spending more time at home t

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Overview:

Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Dairy industry in Canada with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.

Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.

If you're in the Dairy industry in Canada, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.

The Dairy in Canada report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country

This report answers:

  • What is the market size of Dairy in Canada?
  • Which are the leading brands in Dairy in Canada?
  • How are products distributed in Dairy in Canada?
  • How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
  • What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Dairy?
  • How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in Canada?
  • How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
  • Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
  • How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?

Dairy in Canada - Category analysis

Butter and Spreads

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

More time at home switches consumption from foodservice to retail
Butter grows due to its natural image, but plant-based products also do well
Smaller players perform well and the government steps in due to COVID-19

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Rebound expected for foodservice, but retail will struggle to achieve volume growth
Butter set to drive growth, although some plant-based products also likely to do well
Premiumisation set to lead to higher value than volume growth

CATEGORY DATA

Table 1 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 2 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 3 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 4 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 5 NBO Company Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2016-2020 Table 6 LBN Brand Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2017-2020 Table 7 Distribution of Butter and Spreads by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 8 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 9 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 10 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 11 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Cheese

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Strong growth for cheese as more consumers cook at home
The emergence of plant-based, snack-sized and goat milk cheese products
Leaders invest in product development and marketing to stay ahead

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

A return to more stable rates of growth expected from 2022
Trade agreements will lead to new product availability and greater competition
Major players likely to follow smaller players into niches to maintain growth

CATEGORY DATA

Table 12 Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 13 Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 14 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 15 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 16 Sales of Spreadable Processed Cheese by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 17 Sales of Unprocessed Cheese by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 18 NBO Company Shares of Cheese: % Value 2016-2020 Table 19 LBN Brand Shares of Cheese: % Value 2017-2020 Table 20 Distribution of Cheese by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Drinking Milk Products

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Dynamic growth due to lockdown and the essential nature of such products
Milk alternatives and goat milk perform well as more consumers shun cow’s milk
The leaders’ shares suffer due to their low presence in milk alternatives

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

A return to growth patterns seen before the pandemic, with volume decline
Growth expected for super-premium products, poor performance for shelf-stable milk
A possible new direction for milk alternatives

CATEGORY DATA

Table 25 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 26 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 27 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 28 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 29 NBO Company Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2016-2020 Table 30 LBN Brand Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2017-2020 Table 31 Distribution of Drinking Milk Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 32 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 33 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 34 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 35 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Other Dairy

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Stockpiling and the Canadian love of coffee maintain the growth of coffee whiteners
Home cooking contributes to the growth of cream and fromage frais and quark
The leaders extend their shares due to their strength in the largest category, cream

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

After a year of growth correction, stabilisation expected from 2022
Struggles expected for shelf-stable desserts as consumers have different demands
The Canadian coffee culture and plat-based products set to drive growth

CATEGORY DATA

Table 36 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 37 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 38 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 39 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 40 Sales of Cream by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 41 NBO Company Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2016-2020 Table 42 LBN Brand Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2017-2020 Table 43 Distribution of Other Dairy by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 44 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 45 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 46 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 47 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Growth driven by home consumption and sour milk products
Shift to natural and plant-based yoghurts
Players constantly offer new launches and marketing to maintain consumers’ interest

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Foodservice set to rebound as consumers spend more time outside of the home
Organic drinking yoghurt and skyr likely to provide growth opportunities
Plant-based yoghurt will benefit from certification programmes

CATEGORY DATA

Table 48 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 49 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 50 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 51 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 52 Sales of Flavoured Yoghurt by Flavour: Rankings 2015-2020 Table 53 NBO Company Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2016-2020 Table 54 LBN Brand Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2017-2020 Table 55 Distribution of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 56 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 57 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 58 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 59 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Packaged Food in Canada - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on packaged food
COVID-19 country impact
Company response
Retailing shift
Foodservice vs retail split
What next for packaged food?

FOODSERVICE

Sales to Foodservice
COVID-19 restrictions across Canada, severely impact sales of packaged food to foodservice Players adapt to the outbreak of COVID-19, managing their product capacities and moving stock into retailers Home meal replacement kits pose a threat to foodservice sales, providing affordable options to enjoy from home
Consumer Foodservice
Demand for courier delivery services boom, delivering foodservice options and groceries to consumers COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions lead to a significant decline in consumer foodservice sales Consumer foodservice players respond to COVID-19 by creating and launching new products in retailers
Category Data
Chart 1 Packaged Food Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2018-2025 Chart 2 Packaged Food Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2017-2025 Table 60 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 61 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 62 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 63 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025

MARKET DATA

Table 64 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 65 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 66 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 67 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 68 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 Table 69 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 Table 70 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2017-2020 Table 71 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2015-2020 Table 72 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 73 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2020 Table 74 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 75 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 76 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 77 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

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This report originates from Passport, our Dairy research and analysis database.

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