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In 2017, changes in consumers’ perception of fat affected cheese sales. Traditionally, fat has been regarded as the major factor causing lifestyle diseases such as obesity, diabetes and coronary heart disease. However, this perception has slowly changed following the increasing popularity of the LCHF (low carb high fat) diet in the first half of the review period. This diet promotes a high intake of fat while, at the same time, cutting down on carbohydrates. As a result, many consumers have started to opt for full fat cheeses, instead of their usual reduced fat versions. Full fat cheeses are increasingly perceived as being tastier and, combined with LCHF principles, many consumers have even experienced weight loss. However, there are indications that this trend reached its peak towards the end of the review period and that consumers’ perception of fat is once again changing. In 2017, reduced fat cheese recorded current value growth, after a decline in sales in both 2015 and 2016. Consumers who are not strictly following LCHF rules increasingly follow official national health authorities’ recommendations of choosing reduced fat cheeses again.
Arla Foods Amba led cheese in Denmark in 2017, accounting for 52% of value sales, with this share remaining relatively stable over the review period. Arla is by far the most well-known and important dairy manufacturer in Denmark. In cheese, Arla offers a variety of different products and brands, ranging from conventional packaged hard cheese, spreadable cheese and soft cheese, to organic and more premium positioned products. While Arla accounts for over half of cheese sales in Denmark, the remainder is more fragmented. Mammen Mejerierne, also a Danish manufacturer, ranked second in 2017 with a value share of 8% and also offers a wide product portfolio, including packaged hard and soft cheese and spreadable processed cheese. Sales Support Denmark, which distributes the renowned Philadelphia spreadable processed cheese brand in Denmark, ranked third with a value share of 5% in 2017.
The most important trends impacting cheese over the forecast period were the fact that consumer perceptions of fat are once again changing, as well as the trend towards increasing premiumisation. In line with the declining popularity of the LCHF diet, more and more consumers are expected to substitute full fat cheese with reduced fat versions in their everyday lives. However, indulgence continues to be a very important factor for many consumers. As full fat cheese tends to be regarded as tastier, many consumers are increasingly expected to opt for low quantities of high quality cheese during the weekend and special occasions in order to enjoy a good meal with family and friends, with small, premium and local manufacturers especially expected to benefit from this trend.
DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS
In the first half of 2017, both Aldi Holding and Arla Foods decided to remove all GMO (genetically modified organisms) ingredients from feed for conventional milking cows delivering fresh milk as a result of concerns over the long-term effects of consumption. Moreover, consumers often suspect GMO of being harmful to human health and dangerous for the environment. As sustainability and health concerns increase, so is demand for products that are perceived as being more natural. This increasing consumer awareness and demand has resulted in Aldi and Arla deciding to ban GMO from drinking milk products. However, this change only applies to feed for cows which deliver conventional milk, while the production of other conventional dairy products continues as before. In addition, this change has had no effect on organic products, which always have to be free from GMO.
In 2017, Danish dairy manufacturer Arla Foods Amba remained the undisputed leader in drinking milk, accounting for a value share of 52%, followed by local retailer Coop Danmark (11%).
The forecast period will be characterised by manufacturers’ efforts to further vitalise and re-invent the category. The review period already saw the introduction of several “special” milk types which are targeted at certain groups of consumers, such as Arla’s protein milk, Thise’s Urmælk, Arla’s animal welfare milk and milk with a natural fat content. The forecast period will continue to see launches which cater to special consumer demands, with health and wellness, as well as sustainability, playing an especially prominent role in this respect. Milk is no longer just an everyday product, with consumers increasingly using purchasing decisions to show who they are and what they believe in, both consciously and sub-consciously. Choosing free from lactose milk, milk with a high protein content, organic milk or milk alternatives can be a way of showing one’s values and priorities. Manufacturers which aim to become successful in the future need to keep this development in mind when launching new products.
YOGHURT AND SOUR MILK PRODUCTS
In 2017, yoghurt and sour milk products benefitted from less positive development in competing dairy categories. Skyr, which is tracked under fromage frais and quark by Euromonitor International, is an Icelandic dairy product which is extremely popular due to its low fat and high protein content. The product was introduced in Denmark in 2006 by Thise Mejeri, with an increasing number of consumers replacing traditional yoghurt with skyr ever since. However, there were signs of this trend maturing in 2016 and 2017 in Denmark, as growth rates for the first time since the beginning of the review period were merely single digit. This left some opportunity for yoghurt and sour milk to step in once more, with new product developments in 2017 helping the category to once again attract consumer interest and prevent further decline.
Arla Foods dominated yoghurt and sour milk products in 2017, posting a value share of 75%, followed by Danish dairy manufacturers Thise Mejeri (3%) and Dagrofa (3%).
Two major factors will influence yoghurt and sour milk products most over the forecast period. Firstly, consumers will demand products which are convenient. In line with the increasingly hectic pace of modern life, with more and more people replacing traditional home-based meals such as breakfast with products that can be consumed on-the-go. Yoghurt manufacturers can provide healthy and convenient alternatives to traditional breakfast options by offering consumers products suitable for on-the-go consumption, which ideally can be purchased on the way to work. Secondly, the somewhat stagnating popularity of skyr leaves certain potential for yoghurt and sour milk products as well. The review period saw a shift in perception regarding fat, which has traditionally been believed to be a major cause of lifestyle disease. However, this view has gradually changed and, towards the end of the review period, sugar became the major culprit blamed for causing obesity. Pure skyr has a very distinctive, sour taste. Therefore, many consumers are only able to tolerate the taste when camouflaged with a significant amount of sugar. However, the health benefits of eating protein-rich and low fat skyr are contradicted by the large amount of sugar contained in many products. This leaves potential for yoghurt, as sugar content can be reduced substantially without having to compromise too much on taste.
The Icelandic dairy product skyr, tracked under fromage frais and quark by Euromonitor International, recorded impressive growth over the review period. Skyr was introduced in Denmark by local dairy manufacturer Thise Mejeri in 2006 and quickly became popular among Danish consumers due to its high protein and low fat content. From 2012 to 2015, fromage frais and quark recorded double-digit annual current value growth rates. There are, however, signs that this development is slowing down to some extent, with fromage frais and quark recording single-digit growth rates in current value terms in both 2016 and 2017. Skyr in itself has a very distinctive taste, with many consumers preferring skyr with added flavours, such as pear and banana. Towards the end of 2016, increasing media coverage focused on the fact that flavoured skyr often contains considerable amounts of sugar or artificial sweeteners, which many consumers would like to avoid. Sugar is increasingly regarded as the main factor contributing to lifestyle diseases, on a par with, or even worse than, fat. This notion contributed to slower growth in flavoured fromage frais and quark and thus in fromage frais and quark as a whole.
Arla Foods Amba led other dairy in 2017, posting a value share of 63%, followed by Thise Mejeri (11%) and Orkla Foods Danmark (4%). In other dairy, Arla Foods is mainly present through its Karolines brand (cream) as well as reduced fat brand Cheasy (skyr). Thise Mejeri is present with its Thise brand (crème fraîche and skyr), while Orkla Foods is the leader in chilled dairy desserts with its Risifrutti brand.
The forecast period will mainly be marked by the slower growth of skyr. More than a decade after the introduction of this product to the Danish market, the novelty factor seems to be wearing off. Moreover, sugar is increasingly viewed as being at least as responsible for the development of lifestyle diseases as fat. Skyr’s low fat content is therefore no longer a sales argument in itself. Due to the high sugar content of many skyr products, an increasing number of consumers are replacing their skyr breakfast with a reduced sugar yoghurt instead. This will, in turn, lead to slower growth rates in fromage frais and quark and ultimately in other dairy as a whole.
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The Dairy in Denmark market research report includes:
Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country
Our market research reports answer questions such as:
What is the market size of Dairy in Denmark?
What are the major brands in Denmark?
How has the economic downturn impacted sales performance given its staple food status?
Given mounting obesity concerns, are consumers moving from full-fat to reduced fat/fat-free offerings?
How are volatile farmgate prices for milk impacting retail prices and sales performance?
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Summary 10 Naturli’ Foods A/S: Competitive Position 2017
Packaged Food in Denmark - Industry Overview
Growth in packaged food current value sales remains stable
Healthy eating and premiumisation trends gain momentum
Polarisation intensifies competitive pressure on leading manufacturers
Internet retailing starts to gain traction in packaged food distribution
Outlook for packaged food remains favourable
KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
Expansion of private label packaged food lines continues
Internet retailing starts to develop rapidly from a low base
Organic packaged food consumption continues to rise
Free from trend follows the development of organic packaged food
FOODSERVICE: KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
Trends: Sales to Foodservice
Trends: Consumer Foodservice
Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2012-2017 Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017 Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2017-2022 Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 5 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2012-2017 Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2012-2017 Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2012-2017 Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2012-2017 Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2013-2017 Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2013-2017 Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2014-2017 Table 12 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2012-2017 Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2012-2017 Table 14 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2017 Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2017-2022 Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2017-2022 Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022 Table 18 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Summary 11 Research Sources
Why buy this report?
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.