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As lactose intolerance rates rise, goat’s milk and other less traditional cheeses well-positioned for growth
The prevalence of various food allergies and intolerances is on the rise in the US and lactose intolerance is prominent among them. For this reason, cheeses with lower quantities of lactose are set to gain share.
Consumption of plant-based alternative cheeses set to increase as options proliferate
In line with trends across dairy, cheese is starting to see the development of plant-based alternatives. Soy, nutritional yeast and various nuts can be made into non-dairy cheese and this responds to rising demand among vegans and lactose intolerance people.
Trade instability set to continue fuelling volatility in the dairy industry
Various recent executive decisions and legislative action at federal level have the potential to impact the dairy industry in opposing ways, compounding pre-existing volatility in cheese. The House’s proposed FARM bill for 2018 would expand the Margin Protection Program, providing farmers with more subsidies to engage in dairy production and incentivising oversupply even further.
Demand for healthy on-the-go snacking leads brands to launch convenient, snack-style cheeses
Cheese combines high protein and healthy fat content and is easily packaged, positioning the category to respond well to rising consumer demand for healthy on-the-go snacks. With demand shifting towards high-protein foods with few ingredients and convenient products that can be consumed on-the-go, single-serving snack cheeses are primed for strong growth.
Manufacturers face challenges over labelling rights for plant based cheeses
As plant-based alternatives proliferate, dairy farmers and manufacturers, politicians and interest groups from major dairy producing states such as Wisconsin are retaliating to the threat posed to their sales with lawsuits and public demands urging government agencies such as the FDA to redefine which products can be labelled as “milk”. Proponents of more stringent definitions claim they are seeking to protect the sanctity of traditional dairy products and preserve consumer knowledge, emphasising that the term “milk” should refer exclusively to liquids secreted by mammals.
As storage warehouses swell with decline in milk consumption, cheese unit prices could continue drop
Despite declining demand for milk, the oversupply continues to build as dairy farmers depend on milk production for revenues. Storage warehouses are filling quickly, causing operators to search for alternative uses for milk as they scramble to use their stocks before it spoils.
Despite declining milk consumption, government subsidies set to encourage continued production, resulting in likely glut
The USDA’s Margin Protection Program for Dairy provides a safety net for dairy farmers, incentivising continued production even when sales are waning. As such, US dairy production is not slowing despite negative growth in sales, resulting in a growing oversupply of milk.
Organic milk producers forced to address prospect of saturation as growth stalls and uncertainty lingers over future growth potential
Recent years have seen many dairy farmers switch their mechanisms of production to meet rising demand for organic milk. Some of this demand comes from consumers interested in products perceived as more natural and environmentally sustainable.
Milk set for more diversity as plant-based alternatives, fortified cow’s milk and alternative animal milk products burgeon
Oat milk is the latest plant-based milk alternative to appear on retail shelves. Gluten-free, naturally creamy and more environmentally sustainable than nut-based or soy-based milks due to lower water and GMO usage, oat milk is set to capitalise on multiple lifestyle trends as it is introduced into more stores across the country.
Dairy milk brands to focus on whole milk, new marketing initiatives to counter packaging and nutrient-focused trends leveraged by plant-based alternatives
The consumer preference for appealing packaging is reflected in plant-based beverage bottles, consistent with the products’ relatively new introduction to the market. Cow’s milk manufacturers are now seeking to capitalise on these trends by reinventing their product packaging to mimic these trends.
As consumption declines, milk manufacturers may seek new outlets for dairy milk and new versatility for use in other products
As milk consumption wanes, dairy companies are utilising excess milk to diversify their product ranges. Both conventional and organic brands are responding to dairy industry trends in this manner by converting milk into butter, powdered milk and cheeses that have a longer shelf life than fluid milk.
Amidst waning milk consumption and falling prices, struggling Dean Foods manages to generate growth through flavoured milk
With the proliferation of drinking milk varieties, many consumers are abandoning their allegiance to name-brands and showing an overall preference for the lower prices offered by private label. While private label milk is undercutting Dean Foods, the largest single brand in a price-sensitive category, whole and flavoured milk offer the company some relief.
Declining sales as concerns over sugar drive demand away from flavoured yoghurt
As consumers turn away from food products with high levels of added sugar, sales of flavoured yoghurt are expected to continue declining over the forecast period. In response, manufacturers are likely to continue innovating to reduce sugar content following the efforts of Stonyfield Farm and Dannon during 2017 and 2018.
Drinking yoghurt set to remain the standout category
Drinking yoghurt is set for the most dynamic growth over the forecast period. The penetration of drinking yoghurt remains relatively low and the category offers significant potential for future growth, which is likely to encourage further innovation and the entry of new players.
Plain yoghurt set to see the search for “the next Greek yoghurt” as demand wanes
From its introduction in 2007 until 2017, Greek yoghurt was a major driver of growth in yoghurt and sour milk products. Its high protein content, modest calorie count and versatility enabled brands to charge higher prices than for other types of yoghurt.
Danone North America remains on top following its acquisition of WhiteWave
After completing its acquisition of WhiteWave Foods in 2017, Groupe Danone’s merged entity Danone North America remained atop the rankings in yoghurt and sour milk products in 2018. February 2018 saw the company launch Dannon Activia Dailies, a probiotic yoghurt which comes in multipacks of small 3.
Second-placed Chobani struggles as interest in Greek yoghurt continues to fade
Declining demand for Greek yoghurt has presented challenges for Chobani, the pioneer of the US Greek yoghurt revolution. 2017 saw the company take steps to diversify its product range in order to minimise the effects of falling demand and this continued in 2018 with the launch of apple and cucumber flavoured drinking yoghurt as well as a new range of Greek yoghurts with indulgent toppings under the Chobani Flip sub-brand.
Polarisation erodes the position of General Mills’ mid-priced brands
General Mills continued to struggle in yoghurt in 2018 as three of its four yoghurt brands registered sales declines, including Yoplait, the category’s third-ranked brand. One reason for General Mills’ poor performance in recent years is that it is considerably less innovative than its major rivals.
Quark poised to capitalise on superfoods trend, with sales growth expected to follow
Quark is a European-style creamy dairy product that is beginning to take hold in the US. Rich in protein and low in sugar, quark boasts a high nutritional profile that meets growing demand for healthy, natural dairy products.
High protein, new flavour options and convenience set to bolster cottage cheese
Cottage cheese is positioned for sales growth as hectic, busy lifestyles compel American consumers to search for convenient, healthy snacks and meals. With recent innovations including single-serve packs, sweet and savoury flavour options, availability in a variety of fat contents and higher protein than yoghurt, cottage cheese has been revitalised and is ready to break out.
Coffee whiteners, cream to see steady growth as coffee consumption still rising
Coffee consumption in the US is expected to continue rising during the forecast period, providing a base for solid growth in coffee whiteners and cream. New formats for caffeine consumption, such as cold brew coffee and matcha tea provide new opportunities for growth in coffee whiteners and cream.
Non-dairy products to see greater innovation as leading brands enter
As plant-based alternatives to conventional milk-based products proliferate across dairy categories, even leading brands Reddi-wip and Coffee-mate have veered from their commitment to traditional dairy. 2018 saw Coffee-mate introduce almond and coconut milk creamers in four different flavours, positioning the plant-based products alongside their dairy creamers as a viable substitute, while Reddi-wip introduced non-dairy whipped toppings in chilled and shelf-stable desserts.
New product mixes prime cottage cheese for revival
The boom in demand for Greek yoghurt seen during the review period saw many consumers abandoning cottage cheese as manufacturers promoted yoghurt of different flavours and levels of fat content. By comparison, cottage cheese became increasingly perceived as bland and old-fashioned.
Private label portfolios to be enhanced with budget-friendly plant-based alternatives
Private label continues to register growth in other dairy, maintaining a loyal following for traditional products such as sour cream while capturing higher share by expanding into plant-based products. Offering enduring traditional dairy staples such as sour cream at lower prices has enabled private label players to confidently expand into the emerging plant-based alternative space, where already-loyal consumers are increasingly ready to experiment with these lower priced plant-based options.
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The Dairy in USA market research report includes:
Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country
Our market research reports answer questions such as:
What is the market size of Dairy in USA?
What are the major brands in USA?
How has the economic downturn impacted sales performance given its staple food status?
Given mounting obesity concerns, are consumers moving from full-fat to reduced fat/fat-free offerings?
How are volatile farmgate prices for milk impacting retail prices and sales performance?
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Innovation emerges as key to growth in an increasingly competitive market
Revamping of traditional concepts of packaged food products
Mergers and acquisitions continue to provide opportunities for growth
Online grocery retailing slated for aggressive expansion
Further consolidation and innovation expected
Sales to Foodservice
Plant-based alternatives sprouting up in foodservice outlets Potential for future growth via foodservice investments Retail-orientated manufacturers try their hand at foodservice
Restaurants within retail outlets offer continued upside Fast food automation seen as opportunity to increase sales Pop-up restaurants emerging in major cities
Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2013-2018 Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2013-2018 Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2018-2023 Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 5 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2013-2018 Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2013-2018 Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2013-2018 Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018 Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2014-2018 Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2014-2018 Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2015-2018 Table 12 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2013-2018 Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2013-2018 Table 14 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2018 Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2018-2023 Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2018-2023 Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023 Table 18 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
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Why buy this report?
Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.