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Dairy in Ukraine

October 2020

Ukraine was and is one of the top exporters of butter in Western Europe and globally. Prior to 2020, a consumer switch from butter to margarine and spreads was evident, because of strong price increases for butter due to a deficit of milk because of drought, and successful export-led local price increases. There was also a loss of consumer trust, as many experts confirmed that manufacturers sell non-dairy substitutes (plant-based fats) as butter. In 2020, however, with export activity coming to

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Overview:

Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Dairy industry in Ukraine with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.

Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.

If you're in the Dairy industry in Ukraine, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.

The Dairy in Ukraine report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volume and value sizes, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Robust and transparent research methodology, conducted in-country

This report answers:

  • What is the market size of Dairy in Ukraine?
  • Which are the leading brands in Dairy in Ukraine?
  • How are products distributed in Dairy in Ukraine?
  • How is the rise of e-commerce and/or the expansion of modern grocery retail impacting traditional retail?
  • What are the key health and wellness concerns driving, or challenging, sales in Dairy?
  • How significant are vegan and vegetarian dietary requirements in determining sales growth in Ukraine?
  • How has COVID-19 impacted consumer demand? To what extent have lockdown, home seclusion and stockpiling boosted sales? Will the longer term economic repercussions of the pandemic stimulate or suppress future growth?
  • Where is future growth expected to be most dynamic?
  • How significant will values-based claims, such as sustainability and ethical labelling, be in supporting future growth and brand equity?

Dairy in Ukraine - Category analysis

Butter and Spreads

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Demand for butter increases as prices drop due to decline in exports
Margarine and spreads sales rise as consumers bake more at home during quarantine
2020 sees the introduction of new butter and spreads ranging from economy to premium

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Moderate rises in butter prices to sustain butter consumption in the forecast period
Trend of cooking and baking at home likely to linger in the forecast period
Health and wellness trend anticipated to enhance consumers’ scrutiny of ingredients

CATEGORY DATA

Table 1 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 2 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 3 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 4 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 5 NBO Company Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2016-2020 Table 6 LBN Brand Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2017-2020 Table 7 Distribution of Butter and Spreads by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 8 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 9 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 10 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 11 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Cheese

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Lockdown hits foodservice sales hard in 2020 but home cooking trend boosts retail demand
Terra Food leads fragmented shares thanks to strong promotion for Ferma
Premium cheese benefits from new product development, widening distribution and introduction of more affordable options

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Increasing polarisation anticipated in cheese between premium soft cheese and economy hard cheese
Health-orientated and lactose-intolerant consumers demand lactose-free cheese
Larger dairy holdings are anticipated to gain in value share in the forecast period

CATEGORY DATA

Table 12 Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 13 Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 14 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 15 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 16 Sales of Spreadable Processed Cheese by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 17 Sales of Unprocessed Cheese by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 18 NBO Company Shares of Cheese: % Value 2016-2020 Table 19 LBN Brand Shares of Cheese: % Value 2017-2020 Table 20 Distribution of Cheese by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 23 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 24 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Drinking Milk Products

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Players explore new areas, including goat milk, natural milk and packaging
Milk alternatives benefits from healthy image and strong innovation
Popularity of barista-style coffee boosts sales of full fat shelf stable milk and plant-based alternatives

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Milk alternatives are expected to become increasingly more popular due to the health trend
A growing coffee consumption culture is expected to stimulate full fat shelf stable milk sales and plant-based alternatives
Drinking milk products manufacturers are anticipated to opt more for sustainable packaging in response to growing consumer concern for environmental sustainability

CATEGORY DATA

Table 25 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 26 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 27 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 28 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 29 NBO Company Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2016-2020 Table 30 LBN Brand Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2017-2020 Table 31 Distribution of Drinking Milk Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 32 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 33 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 34 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 35 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Other Dairy

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Plain fromage frais and quark grows with the rise of cheaper family packs
COVID-19 causes demand to shift from premium products to economy in other dairy
Wimm-Bill-Dann Ukraine continues to lead other dairy in 2020 owing to its presence in several product areas

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

High sugar content and old-fashioned image is anticipated to lead to a decline in condensed milk
Chilled snacks is anticipated to develop as a product area as manufacturers experiment with unusual flavours and combinations
Other dairy products that are perceived as natural are anticipated to fare well in the forecast period

CATEGORY DATA

Table 36 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 37 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 38 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 39 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 40 Sales of Cream by Type: % Value 2015-2020 Table 41 NBO Company Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2016-2020 Table 42 LBN Brand Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2017-2020 Table 43 Distribution of Other Dairy by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 44 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 45 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 46 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 47 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products

KEY DATA FINDINGS

2020 IMPACT

Lockdown and ensuing economic recession affect demand for novel yoghurt and sour milk products
Health trend drives demand for full fat yoghurt and free from lactose sour milk products
Danone continues to lead yoghurt and sour milk products in 2020

RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES

Sour milk products is expected to see positive performance in line with the health trend
Economic slowdown is anticipated to have a lingering effect on consumer choice of yoghurt and sour milk products
Protein-rich yoghurt and sour milk products are anticipated to gain in popularity

CATEGORY DATA

Table 48 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 49 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 50 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 51 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 52 Sales of Flavoured Yoghurt by Flavour: Rankings 2015-2020 Table 53 NBO Company Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2016-2020 Table 54 LBN Brand Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2017-2020 Table 55 Distribution of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 56 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 57 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 58 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 59 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

Packaged Food in Ukraine - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

COVID-19 impact on packaged food
COVID-19 country impact
Company response
Retailing shift
Foodservice vs retail split
What next for packaged food?

FOODSERVICE

Sales to Foodservice
Sales of packaged food to foodservice outlets is negatively affected by COVID-19 Plant-based protein enters foodservice outlets Packaged food manufacturers support foodservice outlets during the lockdown
Consumer Foodservice
Lockdown leads to a boost in home delivery Foodservice outlets offer frozen ready meals for home delivery during the lockdown Foodservice outlets that offer dishes specific to world cuisines are anticipated to fare well
Category Data
Chart 1 Packaged Food Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2017-2024 Chart 2 Packaged Food Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2016-2024 Table 60 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 61 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 62 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 63 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025

MARKET DATA

Table 64 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020 Table 65 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2015-2020 Table 66 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 Table 67 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 Table 68 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 Table 69 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 Table 70 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2017-2020 Table 71 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2015-2020 Table 72 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2015-2020 Table 73 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2020 Table 74 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025 Table 75 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2020-2025 Table 76 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025 Table 77 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

DISCLAIMER

SOURCES

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This report originates from Passport, our Dairy research and analysis database.

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