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Cheese hit by sharp price rises
Cheese prices rose strongly in 2018, as the devaluation of the Uzbek som had a pronounced impact in a category that relies heavily on imported products, ingredients and technologies. As a consequence, sales increased significantly in current value terms, while volume growth was considerably more muted as declining consumer purchasing power dampened demand.
Domestic cheese production set to improve
The domestic cheese industry in Uzbekistan is expected to improve in terms of the variety and quality of products on offer, as well as packaging and marketing, over the forecast period. The development of local cheese production should benefit from broader government efforts to modernise and diversify agriculture and expand the food processing industry in the country.
Increasing foreign involvement expected
As well as contributing to the improvement of the domestic cheese industry, government reforms, including lifting exchange restrictions on the Uzbek som, are set to encourage foreign investment in the market. As a result, foreign brands and products are expected to become increasingly prominent in the cheese category in Uzbekistan during the forecast period.
Bad Bibra gains lead
Bad Bibra overtook Hochland Russland to gain the lead in cheese in 2018. The company benefited from the extensive distribution of its hard cheese brands, Bibertaler Edamer and Bibertaler Gouda, both of which gained share steadily in the last three years of the review period.
Lactalis continues dynamic expansion
Lactalis Vostok ZAO continued to be the most dynamic major player in cheese in Uzbekistan in 2018 as its President brand maintained momentum on the back of rising consumer awareness. The brand is present in the market in categories such as processed cheese and soft cheese.
Growing emphasis on brand development
The expanding range of cheese products available from both domestic and foreign players is set to place a growing onus on brand development, as manufacturers seek to make their brands stand out on increasingly crowded store shelves. Cheese was not characterised by high levels of marketing activity towards the end of the review period, but this situation is likely to change over 2018-2023.
Local products dominate
Demand for drinking milk products in Uzbekistan is primarily met by local production, which has significantly increased in capacity over the last 15 years, with a relatively minor role for imported products. Local brands have developed high levels of consumer loyalty, while consumption of raw milk purchased directly from farmers remains high.
Health-consciousness exerting a positive impact on packaged products
Rising health-consciousness, boosted by increasing access to the internet and a more liberal information environment, is set to exert a growing influence over a wide range of packaged food categories during the forecast period. With the capacity to promote a naturally healthy positioning, drinking milk products is in a strong position to benefit from this trend.
Shift in distribution
The modernisation of the dairy industry and the switch to packaged drinking milk products is set to lead to an ongoing shift in the retailing landscape over the forecast period. While independent small grocers continue to dominate sales of drinking milk products in Uzbekistan, the review period saw the channel’s share continuously eroded by supermarkets.
Gerfed-Impeks rises to the top
Gerfed-Impeks overtook Nestlé to gain the lead in drinking milk products in 2018 as it maintained a trend of share expansion founded on the popularity and broad availability of its Musaffo Sut brand across the country. The brand also benefited from advertising through national broadcasting, social networks and supermarkets, as well as new packaging design towards the end of the review period.
Nestlé launches new product for kids
Having seen its share eroded by the expansion of Gerfed-Impeks, leading to its loss of the leading position in the category in the final year of the review period, Nestlé looked to strengthen its offer in drinking milk products in Uzbekistan through the launch of the Nido flavoured milk brand in 2018. Manufactured by the company in Uzbekistan, Nido looks to tap into the rise in consumer health-consciousness by targeting parents of children aged 5 to 10 years-old with a product that provides an additional source of vitamins.
New domestic brands maintain growth
Domestic company, Musaffo Iqlim Trans Servis FX, was the fastest-growing player in drinking milk products in 2018, thanks to the ongoing growth in popularity of its Ozimizniki band of shelf-stable milk, which entered the top 10 in 2016, the year of its launch, and became the fourth largest brand in drinking milk products in 2018. Another domestic brand launched in 2016, Pure Milky from Siyob Shavkat orzu FX, also continued to post dynamic growth in the final year of the review period, enabling it to rise one place to become the second largest brand in fresh milk.
Tradition of sour milk consumption
There is a strong tradition of consuming sour milk products in Uzbekistan in the form of the snack, qurt, dry sour milk seasoned with pepper and salt, as well as a range of drinks including ayran, sour milk diluted with spring water and flavoured with herbs, and kumys, which is made from mare’s milk. Consequently, on the one hand, there is a strong platform for the development of yoghurt and sour milk products in the market founded on consumer familiarity with such products, and, on the other, a potential constraint on the category’s expansion in the form of readily available traditional artisanal products.
Manufacturers target parents
Children, or rather their parents, represent a key target group for packaged yoghurt and sour milk products in Uzbekistan. Manufacturers aim advertising campaigns at parents, particularly younger ones who tend to be more health-conscious than their older counterparts.
Factors such as rising concerns about the quality and safety of unpackaged products, the development of the supermarket channel, increasing involvement from foreign manufacturers and the modernisation of the local dairy industry will all contribute to the development of packaged yoghurt and sour milk products during the forecast period. The expanding availability of affordable locally produced packaged yoghurt and sour milk products will enable lower-income consumers to enter the category.
Bio-Sut extends lead
Bio-Sut QK MChJ extended its lead in yoghurt and sour milk products in 2018. The domestic company consolidated its strong lead in sour milk products through the expansion of both the Bio Kefir and Bifidok brands, which have established high levels of consumer loyalty and trust.
Domestic players make inroads in yoghurt
While sour milk products is dominated by local companies, the yoghurt category is led by foreign multinationals, with French company, Danone, taking top spot, followed by Ehrmann and Campina, based in Germany and the Netherlands, respectively. However, domestic players are expanding their presence in yoghurt, with Bio-Sut pulling up nearly neck-and-neck with Ehrmann and Campina in 2018, while Kamilka Products overtook PepsiCo-owned Russian dairy producer, Wimm-Bill-Dann, to gain fifth spot in the yoghurt category during the year.
Potential for multinational expansion
While local players are gaining ground in yoghurt, the strong growth forecast for flavoured yoghurt over 2018-2023 and the increasingly favourable investment environment could encourage more foreign players to look to develop a presence in the category. Several major multinationals, including Nestlé and Lactalis, have already developed significant positions in other areas of dairy, providing a logistical platform and, to some extent, brand-awareness for expansion into yoghurt.
Local players expand in other dairy
The devaluation of the Uzbek som contributed to a significant rise in unit price across other dairy, and particularly in categories characterised by high levels of imports, such as coffee whiteners, condensed milk, and chilled and shelf stable desserts. However, this created more favourable conditions for the development of local players offering more affordable other dairy products.
Shift to packaged products
As in categories such as drinking milk products and yoghurt and sour milk products, the rise in consumer health and hygiene-consciousness is expected to drive a shift from unpackaged other dairy products to packaged alternatives, as consumers become increasingly concerned about the hygiene standards of artisanal products. This will be an important driver of growth in categories such as cream, which is expected to be amongst the most dynamic other dairy categories over the forecast period.
Innovation, convenience and health driving growth
Improving economic conditions and the expansion of the range of products on offer are forecast to lead to ongoing growth in other dairy over 2018-2023, though the rate of growth is expected to be slower than that seen over the review period, as unit prices settle down in the context of a more stable economy. Chilled snacks and flavoured fromage frais and quark are set to be the fastest-growing categories, as they benefit from manufacturer product innovation and an increasing demand for convenient packaged food options as consumer lifestyles accelerate.
Leader strengthens position
Domestic manufacturer, Bio-Sut further strengthened its leading position in other dairy in 2018, building on its diverse offer and reputation for combining quality with competitive prices. The company also benefits from a wide-ranging distribution network that brings its products within reach of consumers across the country.
Demand for healthy children’s products boosts Wimm-Bill-Dann
Wimm-Bill-Dann Produkty Pitania OAO overtook XT Ibragimov HN to gain second spot in overall other dairy in 2018. The company is solely focused on fromage frais and quark, in which it is primarily reliant on the Chudo brand, which is positioned as a healthy option for children, in line with evolving trends in the Uzbekistani market.
Local players have platform for further development
A key feature of the forecast period will be how domestic players and foreign rivals negotiate the expected upmarket shift in demand as economic conditions improve. Having taken advantage of the sharp rise in unit prices of imported products to expand their presence in other dairy, local players have a platform for further development.
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The Dairy in Uzbekistan market research report includes:
Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
Detailed segmentation of international and local products
Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country
Our market research reports answer questions such as:
What is the market size of Dairy in Uzbekistan?
What are the major brands in Uzbekistan?
How has the economic downturn impacted sales performance given its staple food status?
Given mounting obesity concerns, are consumers moving from full-fat to reduced fat/fat-free offerings?
How are volatile farmgate prices for milk impacting retail prices and sales performance?
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Rural population supports traditional grocery retailing
Sales to Foodservice
Demand for convenience exerting a growing influence Growth categories Investment in agriculture and production set to boost sales
Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2013-2018 Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2013-2018 Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2018-2023 Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 5 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2013-2018 Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2013-2018 Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2013-2018 Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018 Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2014-2018 Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2014-2018 Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2015-2018 Table 12 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2013-2018 Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2018 Table 14 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2018-2023 Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2018-2023 Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023 Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
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