Disease Snapshot: Consumer Impact of Seasonal Influenza in Western Europe

The degree to which the influenza vaccine matches the circulating strain(s) is crucial in determining the market impact of the flu season

The biggest determinant of how severe a flu season is likely to be is the degree to which the influenza vaccine matches the dominant circulating strain (typically ~40%). If the match is good, sales of CCA and other associated flu products decrease, but if the match is poor, markets see a corresponding increase in sales of flu products.

Though consumers are generally moving away from synthetic chemical-based OTC products, this trend can rapidly be reversed in the case of a severe flu season

Consumers in developed markets are very aware of the possible risks and side effects of OTC medications, and often eschew them for more “natural” products. That said, consumers are well aware of the efficacy of OTC medications, and in times of increased illness, such as a particularly severe flu season, routinely turn back to OTC medications to combat their symptoms and speed their recovery.

Sales of preventative products, such as echinacea and vitamin C, also increase during severe flu seasons

Some vitamins and dietary supplements are known, or are believed, to be effective in boosting a consumer’s immune system and helping prevent colds and flu, and sales of these preventative products increase in the case of a particularly severe flu season, as consumers try to stay healthy.

Consumers in different markets prefer different OTC products when they are sick (such as lozenges and cough remedies over pills)

Though the dominant viral strain of seasonal influenza is the same across markets, consumers show clear preferences for some products over others when it comes to treating their symptoms. In Germany, for example, cough remedies and combination products are the most popular during flu season, while in Sweden, pharyngeal preparations are preferred, driven by the popularity of RB’s Strepsils.