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Strategy Briefing

Diverging Demographics Determining the Future of Traditional Toys

40 pages, Nov 2017

US$1,325

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While developed regions as a whole are getting older and emerging regions are getting younger, the actual dynamics of each market is more complex, with differing growth amongst certain parts of the population, which is impacting the toy market differently. Emerging markets are at different stages of young child and teenage toy growth, while developed markets are seeing an increasing emphasis on young adults who are more willing to purchase toys for themselves.

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Overview

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Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders. Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats. Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions.

Demographic shifts are causing emerging and developed toy markets to move in opposite directions

Emerging markets will be the main source of global child population growth over 2016-2021 and have a relatively young audience to sell to, with young children’s toys the main source of growth. At the same time, developed markets are seeing stagnating birth rates, leading toy makers to emphasise toys for adults.

Emerging Asia and MEA are seeing growth in toys for young children, but will need to prepare for eventual shift to pre-teen and teenage toys

The Middle East and Africa and Emerging Asia are seeing high birth rates and rising incomes that make them a prime area for toys for young children. Russia and Mexico are, however, more focused on toys for pre-teens and older, and demonstrate that high birth rate markets need to prepare for demographic shifts. Toy makers need to work to establish brands that span ages and resonate with local parents and consumers to realise the full potential of emerging toy markets.

US adult consumers make games and puzzles the fastest growing category in 2016

Games and puzzles was the fastest growing area of traditional toys in 2016, due to adult interest in the US. Toy makers within the US can look to capitalise on this adult board game trend, like Asmodee has, and even find ways to expand it into other areas of toys if they can be used for decoration or as a social activity.

Developed Asia Pacific markets demonstrate the potential of the adult toy segment

The impact of adults in traditional toys is most clearly seen with developed Asia Pacific, where adults have a large and growing toy presence. Established local IPs, like Pokémon and Yo-Kai Watch, and more toys made specifically for adults have helped the market and could have applications in other developed countries.

Corporate strategies will need to evolve to prepare for the long-term future

Further demographic segmentation across markets will be seen, and companies will need to position themselves now to create a foothold to capitalise on future growth. This means taking multiple approaches, like partnering or acquiring local licences, or creating new products and licences with multigenerational appeal.

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Introduction

Scope

Key findings

The Diverging Demographic Toy Future

Emerging markets to become growth leaders following brief slide

Adults lead developed markets while young children head emerging

Demographic differences impact category development

Market divergence built on birth rate and ageing fault lines

Emerging Toy Markets Shift From Young Children to Teenagers

Emerging markets at different phases child population growth

Asia and Middle East and Africa lead young child population growth

Emerging markets category growth reflect shifting demographics

China and India lead young children toy sales in emerging Asia

Other emerging toy markets follow different demographic shifts

Case study: LEGO’s success in emerging markets

LEGO looking to use emerging markets to balance developed

China’s education focus and income growth key to LEGO’s success

Efforts to reduce costs and create local focus further LEGO’s success

Implications for other brands, regions and categories

Adults Start to Effect Developed Toy Market

Young children to diminish in importance in developed markets

Losses in young child toy sales in developed Asia going to adults

Developed Asian household structure and media drive toy sales

Case study: The US adult toy market

Social gatherings gain importance as family formation lags in US

US adults focus on games and puzzles

Asmodee partially consolidates the US hobby market

Toys “R” Us decline in US partly due to lack of appeal to adults

Other categories could hold potential for US adults

Key strategies for developed adult traditional toy markets

The Next Demographic Shift Impact on Traditional Toys

Growth will largely be focused on adult consumers through 2030

the Next Demographic Shift Impact on Traditional Toys

Growth in households with children will lag those without

New generations will rise in certain markets

Setting the foundation for multigenerational brands

Top strategies to employ to prepare for 2030

Local licences could expand in emerging markets

Key winners and losers from demographic shifts

Report Definitions

Data parameters and report definitions

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Megatrends

Strategy Briefing

Diverging Demographics Determining the Future of Traditional Toys

New Report Guarantee

About This Report

New Report Guarantee

Overview

Why buy this report?

Demographic shifts are causing emerging and developed toy markets to move in opposite directions

Emerging Asia and MEA are seeing growth in toys for young children, but will need to prepare for eventual shift to pre-teen and teenage toys

US adult consumers make games and puzzles the fastest growing category in 2016

Developed Asia Pacific markets demonstrate the potential of the adult toy segment

Corporate strategies will need to evolve to prepare for the long-term future

Want to find out more about this report?

Table of Contents

Introduction

Scope

Key findings

The Diverging Demographic Toy Future

Emerging markets to become growth leaders following brief slide

Adults lead developed markets while young children head emerging

Demographic differences impact category development

Market divergence built on birth rate and ageing fault lines

Emerging Toy Markets Shift From Young Children to Teenagers

Emerging markets at different phases child population growth

Asia and Middle East and Africa lead young child population growth

Emerging markets category growth reflect shifting demographics

China and India lead young children toy sales in emerging Asia

Other emerging toy markets follow different demographic shifts

Case study: LEGO’s success in emerging markets

LEGO looking to use emerging markets to balance developed

China’s education focus and income growth key to LEGO’s success

Efforts to reduce costs and create local focus further LEGO’s success

Implications for other brands, regions and categories

Adults Start to Effect Developed Toy Market

Young children to diminish in importance in developed markets

Losses in young child toy sales in developed Asia going to adults

Developed Asian household structure and media drive toy sales

Case study: The US adult toy market

Social gatherings gain importance as family formation lags in US

US adults focus on games and puzzles

Asmodee partially consolidates the US hobby market

Toys “R” Us decline in US partly due to lack of appeal to adults

Other categories could hold potential for US adults

Key strategies for developed adult traditional toy markets

The Next Demographic Shift Impact on Traditional Toys

Growth will largely be focused on adult consumers through 2030

the Next Demographic Shift Impact on Traditional Toys

Growth in households with children will lag those without

New generations will rise in certain markets

Setting the foundation for multigenerational brands

Top strategies to employ to prepare for 2030

Local licences could expand in emerging markets

Key winners and losers from demographic shifts

Report Definitions

Data parameters and report definitions

Why buy this report?

Want to find out more about this report?

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