This report examines the drivers of plant-based diets, the limitation current products have and what meat reduction might mean for the meat industry in the coming years. It investigates whether a significant share of consumers may avoid meat intake due to worries over climate change and what manufacturers can do to mitigate the possibility of negative impact.
This report comes in PPT.
60% of global respondents are worried about climate change. Thereof, 77% try to have a positive impact on the environment, while 27% try to cut down on meat intake. Brazil has the highest share of respondents worried about climate change.
Pricing and availability of meat substitutes are two key factors that currently hold back its penetration worldwide. Consumers in developing and emerging markets seeking to increase protein intake are likely to prefer fresh meat over the forecast period, as it remains cheaper than meat substitutes and of high nutritional value. Meanwhile, Germany is set to see declining meat substitute sales over the forecast period. Western European consumers wishing for better taste and more variety send important signals to manufacturers.
Many Governmental health recommendations agree on a per capita meat yearly intake of around 26kg per person, 77% of the world average, and only 28% of the US average. Publications of the World Health Organization drive the health-motivated consensus adopted by China, Sweden, France, the UK and the Netherlands, among others. This dietary consensus has yet to mature into targeted taxations or other active measures to reduce meat intake.
Tofu remains popular and sees phenomenal growth in China and other key Asian markets. Although not consumed with the intent of avoiding meat, tofu is a key protein source that offers serious competition for meat processors, as they look for the bulk of meat sales growth to come from developing markets in the next decade.
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